#317-318
7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT (time change)
BIG 10 Conference
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS @ INDIANA HOOSIERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Make note of the time change for this game. Originally scheduled for a High NOON kickoff, the game has been more to 7:30pm ET (4:30pm PT). The OU line for this Big 10 battle opened at 48.5 points and has held pretty steady throughout the week. Our database models indicate that the line is about 6 to 8 points too low. So that definitely signals a ‘buy sign’ for a normal King Creole 2** Play. There’s a couple of individual TEAM aspects that point to a higher scoring outcome than most lines makers anticipate. Number One, the Spartans are off a shocking road favorite loss to Arizona State. They have had TWO weeks to stew, vent, and lick their chops in anticipation of a whipping boy that they can take their frustrations out on. And make no mistake, this is NOT the usual great defense that Michigan State is accustomed to fielding. That was evident when they allowed 31 points at home to Utah State in their first game of the season. A game that we might add… that went OVER by +16.5 point (OU line was 52.5 / final score was 38 to 31). Meanwhile, the host Hoosiers have cone out if the gate in unfamiliar territory (for them). A prefect 3-0 record in their first three games of the season. Granted, the opponents in those first there games were not great teams… but they weren’t pushovers either (Florida-International, Virginia, Ball State). The stats are a little skewed, but as it is… Indiana actually comes in with the better offense thus far. The Hoosiers are averaging 436.3 total yards per game on offense compared to Michigan State’s 414.5. The way Indiana has been playing on special teams, there's also a good chance we see one or more of those ‘freak’ touchdowns as well.
Sharp OU bettors already know about the OU tendencies of this Big Ten series. MICHIGAN STATE and INDIANA have gone 8-2 O/U in the last ten meetings versus each other. The average OU line in this series is 54.5. That’s about 6 points HIGHER than this year’s game. Average combined points: 62.5! That means the average OU margin has been a whopping +8 points per game. In that ten-year stretch, we’ve seen extremely high point totals like 79 points… 78 points… 73 points… 70 points… and 67 points… INDIANA has gone 24-7 O/U after allowing less than 20 points in their last game, and 13-3 O/U off a SU win of 20 or more points. MICHIGAN STATE has gone 6-0 O/U after allowing less than 20 points in their last game… and 8-2 O/U after allowing < 100 rushing yards in their last game.
Based on there current pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is: Michigan State 27 - Indiana 21.5. Our database simulations and models differ pretty significantly. The most common score that comes out of OUR database querying is:
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS 31
INDIANA HOOSIERS 24
That’s about 6-7 points higher than the current OU line. Any College game with a total that's 6 to 9.5 higher or lower than our projections automatically triggers a normal 2** Play for our service.