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2018-09-16T17:00:00.000Z 2018-09-16T17:00:00.000Z - NFL

271 Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
272 Pittsburgh Steelers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

09/16/2018

NFL Totals

OV KC/PIT

42-37

52½

3

W

300

Analysis
Sunday, Sept. 16th
NFL Week Two
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#271-272
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

Get you play in as SOON as possible. What did we learn from last week’s OU results in Pro Football? The Early Bird gets the best line VALUE! We mentioned this fact in the writeup for last week’s top play (UNDER 45.5 in the Steelers / Browns game). If you bet that one on Wednesday when we released the play, you cashed a Win. If you bet it on Thursday or Friday, you still cashed a win. But if you bet that game on Saturday or Sunday, you may have lost. As we have talked about many times, our OU plays are based on VALUE. And that game had plenty of value at the opening number of 46.5 points, and all the way down to 43 or more points. But once all the squares started to join in on Sat and Sun, the value was SUCKED out of that play when the lime fell all the way down to 40.5 to 41 points. For this week’s Best Bet, I made my move and bet the game at the opening number of 50.5 points. As of Wednesday afternoon, the line has risen to 52 to 52.5. There is STILL some value to this play. You should be ok if YPUR line in this one is 53.5 or less. In that scenario, we would still cash a winner if this game finishes right on tp of one of the ‘key’ OU numbers like 54 or 55 points. Make no mistake. Our projections see a game finishing at 61 or more total points scored. But to never hurts to get the best VALUE that you can find.

If this game was IN Kansas City, we might just pass. If this game was NOT in Pittsburgh, we also might pass. That’s because KC has been one of the league’s best HOME ‘Under’ teams in the league as of late (9-21-1 O/U last 31 home games / only 39.6 combined PPG). And that’s also because Pittsburgh has been one of the league’s best ROAD ‘Under’ teams as of late (4-20-1 O/U last 25 road games / only 38.8 combined PPG). But this game is IN The Steel City, and we are confidently expecting an AFC Conference SHOOTOUT. Let’s remind all the sharp OU bettors what just happened a few days ago in the first weekend of the season. NFC non-division Conference games went 0-4 O/U, with an average of only 31.0 combined PPG. But AFC teams playing at HOME went 5-1 O/U… 

As we talked about last week, Pittsburgh is an entirely DIFFERENT offensive team at HOME than they are on the road. And the results have been ‘OVER-whelming’. Steeler HOME games have averaged 63.8 combined PPG since the middle of last season. They have gone 11-3-1 O/U since the 2014 season as CONFERENCE home favorites (including 8-1 O/U when favored by LESS than a touchdown). QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for FIVE TD’s and put up 43 points in Pittsburgh’s 2016 meeting at home versus the Chiefs (OVER cashed by +9 points). On the flip side, I wrote a segment in my most recent article (NFL ‘Blow Your Mind’ / OU Style) about Kansas City games EXPLODING when they take to the road. Kansas City was the HIGHEST scoring road team in ALL of Football last season. That’s right. Higher scoring than the La Rams (52.0)… the Phil Eagles (52.0)… the TBay Bucs (51.2)… and the GB Packers (50.4).

We certainly acknowledge that in terms of the OU Line, the bar has been set HIGH for us. But we have enough ‘OU ammo’ for our database to back up our call. And in this case, enough data to warrant an escalation to BEST BET territory for our service. On that same point, our first query looks at the high OU Line… which in this case, is certainly justified. 
AFC Conference home favorites of -3 > points (STEELERS are currently -4) with a very HIGH OU Line of 52 or more points… have gone OVER the TOTAL 91% of the time (10-1 O/U) since 2012 versus any NON-division opponents (CHIEFS).

The visiting Chiefs were also on the road last week. They took on the Chargers in a AFC West opening-week battle. The game featured 66 total points (went OVER by +18)… and 903 total yards of offense by both teams. Kansas City scored 38 points in that win… 9-1 O/U last 3+ seasons: All NFL teams AFTER scoring 35 or more points in a division ROAD game (CHIEFS)… when the OU line is > 45 points.

Kansas City was actually a DOG in that division road game, and won OUTRIGHT by 10 points (final score: 38 to 28). The game also went OVER... 8-0 O/U since 2015: All CONFERENCE Teams off a DOUBLE-DIGIT road DOG win (CHIEFS) that also went ‘Over the Total’.

In regards to the Steelers, TIES are RARE in Pro Football. So our database sample size is small when looking at tie games. But with that said, I’ll take numbers like these: Since 1997, NFL favorites of -3 > points off a TIE Game (STEELERS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U.

So both teams played road games last week, and both teams scored AND allowed 21 or more points in those road games. So they are BOTH active in this ultra-RECENT high scoring situation: Last year, in the first half of the season, NFL teams went 8-1-1 O/U in NON-division games after a road game in which they scored AND allowed 21 > points (STEELERS + CHIEFS)… when the OU line was > 45 points.
Pick Creation Time:
09/12/2018 10:38 AM
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