9-15-2018
#113-114
7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT
MASSACHUSETTS MINUTEMEN @ FLORIDA-INTERNATIONAL GOLDEN PANTHERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Like our afternoon play, you’ll want to get your action in as soon as possible in this Saturday NIGHT game. The line is moving upward as we speak. It’ll be played about 25 miles south of where we currently Iive in South Florida. Ricardo Silva Stadium at the FIU campus in Miami. This game between the MINUTEMEN and GOLDEN PANTHERS opened at 59 points. I got my bet in at 59.5. Since then, it has gone UP to the current number of 62 points in the last 36 hours. There’s still a good amount of VALUE, as we have this game ending up somewhere around 69 to 75 points. But again, you’ll want to make your move as soon as you can.
One thing we can pretty much count on in regards to this game: BOTH teams (not just one) have pretty crappy defenses. Despite UMass not being a regular member of Conference USA, they have still played Florida-International in each the last three seasons. And let’s not forget last year’s SHOOTOUT on this very same field. FIU was a home dog of +2.5 points versus UMass, and the OU line was 56.5 points. Both teams combined for 28 points in the first quarter, and at the half… the score was already 35 to 21. That’s right, they are a HALF point away from chasing the OVER by halftime. When the smoke cleared from the scoreboard ‘exploding’ (exaggeration), the final score was OVER 100 freakin’ points. FIU 63 - UMASS 45! There were more than 1200 yards of total offense in the game (FIU: 674 / UMASS: 548). Both of these teams have many of the SAME offensive personnel in 2018 than they did in last years’s game. FIU returns 7 starters on offense this season, and UMASS returns a full TEN starters on offense.
With a big time, character-building road WIN last week against Old Dominion, the GOLDEN PANTHERS should come out like a house on fire. Particularly after two of their players were in a drive-by shooting last Thursday. Its an emotional time, but both players are doing ok… and the team has rallied together in celebration. The Panthers have showed solid balance on offense in their two games thus far. FLORIDA-INTERNATIONAL is 13-3 O/U in the last 2+ seasons at HOME versus all losing (< .500) opponents. On the flip side, UMASS has already come out of the gate with two POOR defensive efforts in the last two weeks. They have allowed 89 points in those last 2 games (44.5 ppg), and 450 offensive yards per game. MASSACHUSETTS is on a current 2-season run of 8-1 O/U in their last nine games… and 6-0 O/U in their last six games on FieldTurf.
Our database models and simulations point to a very CLOSE game. So we also have the potential of OVERTIME here… which case do nothing but enhance the ‘OVER the TOTAL’ potential. Based on the current spread and OU Line, the predicted score in this game is: FIU 33 - UMASS 29.
Our numbers are a little higher:
FLORIDA-INTERNATIONAL 37
MASSACHUSETTS 34