I jumped on this UNDER when the opening line of 44.5 came out on Monday morning. Since then, it’s gone down to 42.5 to 43. What did we learn from Week One? To get your play in ASAP! With LA laying a HEFTY -7 or more points, then you probably know what database situation gets the LEAD in this Chargers / Bills writeup: BIG road ‘chalk’ = BIG-time UNDERS!
In the last three seasons, BIG road favorites of -7 or more points (Chargers) have gone 5-29-1 O/U... and that includes 1-14 O/U (93% Unders) in NON-division play.
Some long-time Tipsheet readers might be a little worried since this is one of those infamous CROSS-COUNTRY road trips that have led to high scoring results. But that’s only when the West Coast team is an underdog. The exact opposite is true for road ‘chalk’:
NFL West Time Zone road FAVORITES (Chargers) have gone 2-12 O/U in the last 4 years vs any East Time Zone opponent (Bills) in the Sunday early kickoffs. That includes a perfect 0-6 O/U in Game Seven or less.
We are aware that Los Angeles allowed a whopping 38 points in Week One. To balance that out, the dysfunctional Bill’s offense scored only 3 points in their game versus the Ravens. Put both outcomes together, and you get:
1-13 O/U since 2007: All NFL teams who ALLOWED 35 > pts last week (LA) vs any opponent who SCORED 3 < pts (BUF) last week... when the OU line is 42 > points.
In Week One, the Chargers were division home favs vs the Kansas City Chiefs, and lost OUTRIGHT by Double D’s.
6-24-1 O/U since 2011: All NFL teams off a SU DIVISION home FAV loss by 10 or more points (Chargers). In the last four years, FAVORITES in this pissed-off situation have gone a PERFECT 0-9-1 O/U.
For the host Bills, they suffered the worst loss (47 to 3!) of any team in Week One action.
(1) 1-11 O/U since 2014: All NFL teams off a SU loss in which they SCORED 3 < pts and ALLOWED 28 > pts (Bills) when the OU line is < 47 points...
(2) LAST season, NFL teams who allowed 40 or more points on the ROAD (Bills) went 3-14 O/U in their next game.