NFL Week One
Monday. Sept. 10th
10:20pm ET / 7:20pm PT
#481-482
Los Angeles Rams @ Oakland Raiders
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The OU line for this Monday’s game two of the double-header between the RAMS and RAIDERS opened at 50 points a few months ago. Since then, the line has dropped down a half to a full point… to the current number of 49.5 (as we type this on Tuesday, Sep. 4th). We agree with that move, and we made our bet at the line of 49.5. Our database models and simulations suggest that this line is about 4-5 points too high. With that value, we’re Going LOW to close outWeek One of the 2018 season.
Tracking the current POINTSPREAD action is an indicator that the higher the line, the better the UNDER potential is. Last year’s NFC West Division champs (RAMS) opened up as a ‘pick em’ in this game way back in late June. Since then, almost ALL of the cash and tickets have been wagered on the Rams. As a result, they are now a road FAVORITE of -4.5 points. When we run a query of the pointspread and the (relatively) high OU Line, the database tells us that:
In the last 4 seasons, BIG NFL road favorites of -4 or greater points (Rams), with a high OU line of 48 to 52 points… have gone 1-11 O/U (92% Unders).
Next up, a couple of ‘Week One-SPECIFIC’ Over / Under situations jumped out at me when I was doing the summertime research for Issue #1 of the Playbook Totals Tipsheet newsletter…
(1) NFL Week One NON-DIVISION games, in which the road team is FAVORED (Rams)… have gone 8-27-1 O/U since the 1999 season when the OU line is > 41 points. Road FAVS of -3 or more points (Rams) have gone 3-23-1 O/U in this situation (88% Unders). And Road FAVS of -4 or more points (Rams) have gone 1-9 O/U (90% Unders).
(2) NFL Week One HOME teams who have ROAD games in Weeks 2 and 3 (Raiders) have gone 2-10 O/U in the last four years.
With both of these teams hailing from a WEST DIVISION, our database points out that:
In the last five years, All WEST DIVISION versus any WEST DIVISION game (Rams @ Raiders) have gone 8-23-1 O/U (74% Unders) when the OU Line is in the mid-to-high range of > 46 points. In the last two years, these games have gone 1-8-1 O/U (89% Unders).
This Rams / Raiders SERIES has gone 2-7 O/U in the last nine meetings… and 1-3 O/U in the last four (with a low average of only 35.8 combined points per game).
Sealing the deal for us is a look at the OU tendencies in MONDAY games when the host is an underdog, like the Raiders are…
NFL Monday Night HOME UNDERDOGS of +3 or more points (Raiders vs Rams) have gone 7-20-1 O/U since the 2011 season… and a PERFECT 0-9-1 O/U in the last three years!
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