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2018-09-10T00:20:00.000Z 2018-09-10T00:20:00.000Z - NFL

477 Chicago Bears
vs.
478 Green Bay Packers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

09/09/2018

NFL Sides

Bears

23-24

+7½

2

W

200

Analysis
Sunday, September 9th
8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT
NBC TV
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
2** Play on: CHICAGO BEARS plus the points

Yes, we are going THERE. Grabbing the points in the first Sunday NIGHT game of the season. And you’ll want to make your move as soon as possible. We got our play in at Chicago +8 points. As we type this on Friday afternoon, there lissome steam showing up ON the Dog. Current lines list this at Green Bay minus anywhere from -7 to -7.5 points. Obviously, we’ll stand behold this one REGARDLESS of what the pointspread is when they kick it off on Sunday night, But the savvy ATS bettor can increase has chances of cashing a ‘W’ at the line of +7.5 or more. At the very LEAST, grab the +7 if you can. We already know that the Packers have struggled as of late when covering big numbers. GREEN BAY has gone 0-4 ATS in the last three seasons as favorites of > 7 points. on the flip side, CHICAGO has gone 16-5-1 ATS since 1998 as big DIVISION underdogs of > 7 points…

The database HIGHLIGHT of this play is that the rejuvenated Bears are playing with the motivator of REVENGE… and that they are posted as sizable division underdog. Here’s what our database querying has revealed:
NFL Week One DIVISION underdogs playing with REVENGE have gone 25-8-1 ATS since 2010. In the last five seasons among, these motivated PUPPIES have gone an almost-PERFECT 11-1-1 ATS (92%). In 2018 Week One action, there are TWO dogs that qualify in this situation. One of ‘em is the Cleveland Browns, hosting Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately, a lot of the VALUE has been sucked out of that Play (Cleveland opened +6.5… and are now down to +4). So that leaves us with the BEARS as OUR Play. And the higher the line, the better it is for us.

Big division DOGS are ALWAYS a great play, when having the motivation of Revenge… regardless of the week (in the first half of the season).
In the last ten seasons, GAME EIGHT or less DIVISION underdogs of > 7 points playing with REVENGE have gone 61-37-3 ATS (BEARS). This are some nice, PROFITABLE numbers in a pretty large sample size.

In fact, it’s REVENGE times FOUR for the Midway Monsters. Green easy has won EACH of the last four meetings versus the Bears ever the last two years… 10-2-1 ATS last 4 years: ANY NFL road underdog of > 4 and < 120 points (BEARS) playing with QUADRUPLE-Revenge (4 times or more)…

1-8 ATS last four years: All GAME ONE teams playing the FIRST of back-to-back DIVISION home games top start the season (Green Bay is also hosting Minnesota next week). These teams are gone a PERFECT 0-4 ATS was Week One FAVORITES...
Pick Creation Time:
09/07/2018 10:30 AM
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