10:15pm ET / 7:15pm PT
#391-392
ESPNU TV
Connecticut Huskies @ Boise State Broncos
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 64 or higher
In all three of our Saturday College Football OU Plays, we are FADING (going against) current line moves. In two out of three cases, SIGNIFICANT line moves. Case in point: S Carolina / Georgia opened at 52.5 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has risen to 56 - 56.5…. Florida-International / Old Dominion opened at 58 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has fallen to 51.5 to 52. Even in our third game: Connecticut / Boise State opened at 62 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has risen to 63.5 to 64. Like MANY of our O/U Plays, we play on VALUE. And thats the way it should be. Trying to find value in the line. This is one of the reasons that unlike the NFL, we release our College Football OU Plays as LATE in the week as possible. To track the line movement from the opening day (Mondays or Tuesdays) all the way to the day before the games (Friday).
Game Three sees our Totals Train heading out west to the state of Wyoming, as the 1-0 Cowboys from Boise State host the Connecticut Huskies. The OU line opened at 62… and has gone up to 63.5 to 64 points as we type this on Friday afternoon. If this was a Boise ROAD game, we might be tempted to go the other way… or at least PASS. But we cannot ignore how stout the Cowboy’s defense its at home on the ‘Blue Stuff’. Last year, they allowed 14 or less points at home on 4 out of six games. Datong back to the 2015 season, BOISE has gone 4-15-1 O/U in their last 20 home games. And they are bring back TEM out of 11 starters on defense THIS season. A defense that was already ranked win the Top 20 last year. For the visiting Huskies of UConn, we already know to ‘Think LOW’ when facing NON-CONF opponents (3-10 O/U last 13 non-conference games). Our database models have this game finishing somewhere in the neighborhood of 56 to 58 points. That’s about 5-7 points LESS than the current OU line… and signals a 1* Play for our service.