7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT
#319-320
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL PANTHERS @ OLD DOMINION MONARCHS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 51 or lower
In all three of our Saturday College Football OU Plays, we are FADING (going against) current line moves. In two out of three cases, SIGNIFICANT line moves. Case in point: S Carolina / Georgia opened at 52.5 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has risen to 56 - 56.5…. Florida-International / Old Dominion opened at 58 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has fallen to 51.5 to 52. Even in our third game: Connecticut / Boise State opened at 62 points. As of Friday afternoon, the line has risen to 63.5 to 64. Like MANY of our O/U Plays, we play on VALUE. And thats the way it should be. Trying to find value in the line. This is one of the reasons that unlike the NFL, we release our College Football OU Plays as LATE in the week as possible. To track the line movement from the opening day (Mondays or Tuesdays) all the way to the day before the games (Friday).
In the second game, it’s OVER the Total… but in an ‘under the radar’ game. In this case, Conference USA territory. A game at Foreman Field at SB Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, Virginia. Two team who both went OVER in last week’s Game One action. And two teams who are returning a combined 16 PLAYERS on offense from last season. For the visiting Panthers, they brought back only 4 starters on defense this year, and those deficiencies showed up in last week’s 38-28 ho,e loss to the Indiana Hoosiers. FIU had one of those patented 200+/200+ games on defense (allowed 200+ yards via there ground AND the air). Last season, they allowed 28.5 ppg and 415 you on defense, and this year’s version could be even worse. Going back 2+ seasons, FIU is 15-5-1 O/U off a SU loss. For the host Monarchs, last week’s game versus a brand new FBS school was a revelation. LIBERTY UNIVERSITY just made the jump UP… and they torched Old Dominion for 591 freaks’ yards and 52 points! Looks like its gonna be a long season for the Monarchs.Let’s not forget that this FLORIDA-INTL / OLD DOMINION series has gone 3-0-1 O/U in the last four meetings. Our database models have this game finishing somewhere in the neighborhood of the OPENING OU line (58 points). In a normal situation, we would lay off. But not with the big OU line move (creating VALUE). That’s about 6-8 points HIGHER than the current OU line… and triggers a 2** Play for our service.