9:10pm ET / 6:10pm PT
#963-964
Arizona Diamondbacks w/ Corbin @ Los Angeles Dodgers w/ Kershaw
3*** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL / 7 runs
Just like the first two games of this NL West Division series: A PITCHERS DUEL in La-La Land. That’s what we get when we combine two dominant snd hot pitchers… two COLD offenses… A Pitchers Park… And the BEST ‘Under’ Umpire on all of Major League Baseball.
Thursday’s GAME ONE of this 4-game series: 3 to 1… Friday’s GAME TWO of this 4-game series: 3 to 2… Look for more of the same on Saturday with each team sending out their ACE to the mound. We know that the bar has been set LOW for us (OU line opened at 7, is showing signs of going down to 6.5)… but no one every said that this sports betting business was easy.
We already know that the visiting D’Backs are swinging some COLD sticks these days. They have scored more than 3 runs on offense only ONCE in their last eight games. The average is just 2.3 offensive runs per game. But they’ve been getting some GREAT pitching performances in that stretch as well… allowing only 1.7 runs per game in that same time frame. So its no surprise that Arizona come into tonight’s contest on a current 7-GAME ‘UNDER’ streak. Not only that, the D’BACKS are 3-13 O/U in their last 16 games versus WINNING ( > .500) opponents… and 3-10 O/U in their last 13 road games versus LEFTIES. Meanwhile, the Dodgers ALSO tends to ‘trend LOWER’ versus Southpaws. LA is 15-36-2 O/U dating back to last season versus left-handed starters, including 6-19-2 O/U at HOME. Also 5-15-1 O/U in their last 21 DIVISION games… and a PERFECT 0-7 O/U in their last seven home games vs WINNING ( > .500) opponents…
So Arizona actually has TWO Aces this season. One of ‘em went in last night’s UNDER (Zack Greinke). But the OTHER One will be going tonight. That would be Patrick Corbin. 16-11 on the year in his team starts with an ERA of 3.15. A slightly better ROD pitcher (3.04 ERA) than he is at home (3.27). What compels us to bump this one up to 3*** BEST BET status when it comes to Corbin are three major points: #1, He’s in his most dominant current form of the season, right here and right NOW. His last four starts have resulted in an even LOWER ERA (2.22). #2, Corbin does NOT give up a lot of Gopher Balls (the 'enemy of the UNDER bettor’). In his last TEN starts covering 64 innings, he has allowed only ONE home run. And finally (#3), helps already looked brilliant in three starts versus the Dodgers this season: 18.1 innings pitched / only 3 earned runs / ERA of 0.98 / K-BB ratio of 24-6.
His counterpart will be theACE of the Dodgers staff. That would be southpaw Clayton Kershaw. he comes in with the lowest ERA on the entire staff (2.39 on the year). He should be ULTRA-strong tonight. That’s because his last start was last Saturday. So he comes in with a full six days of rest. And its not lost on us that Kershaw has gone 1-7 OU when picking on 6 days of rest. Or the fact that SATURDAYS have been great days for UNDERS when it comes to Kershaw. He has gone 4-20-3 O/U pitching on Saturdays the last three years. Like his counterpart, Kershaw is in the most dominant form of his season. Since the middle of the month of July, he has allowed 2 or LESS earned runs in EVET start (SEVEN of ‘em!). His ERA in those seven starts: 1.84. And in his last three starts, the number are even better: 1.57 ERA.
Sealing the deal is tonight’s Man in Blue. Working behind the dish for Game Three will be DAN BELLINO. When you take a look at the long list of all 89 full-time Major League Baseball Umpires, the very TOP SPOT on that list in terms of UNDERS for the season is… you guessed it: Bellino. In 23 games worked so far in the 2018 season, billion stands at #1 with a YTD record of 4-16-3 O/U. That’s an UNDER percentage of 80%. He has worked 12 NATIONAL LEAGUE games this year, and his record in those games is just 2-10 O/U… with a very LOW average of only 6.0 combined runs per game. That’s certainly justification enough to bump this one up to BEST BET status.