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2018-08-23T02:10:00.000Z 2018-08-23T02:10:00.000Z - MLB

961 St. Louis Cardinals
vs.
962 LA Dodgers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

08/22/2018

MLB Totals

UN STL/LAD

1-3

2

W

200

Analysis
Wednesday, August 22nd
10:10pm ET / 7:10pm PT
St Louis Cardinals w/ Flaherty @ Los Angeles Dodgers w/ Buehler
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

We’re heading right back to the scene of the crime tonight. That would be La-La Land. We lost by ONE run last night out here in Game Two of the Cards / Dodgers series (OU Line was 8 / final score was 5 to 2). We certainly had our chances to get a lot more runs in that one. The score was already 3-1 in the Top of the 3rd inning. But alas, both teams combined to leave 17 MEN ON BASE in that game (Stl: 6 / LA: 11). We’ll move on from that (rare) loss, and Go LOW in tonight’s series finale. Backed up by a strong UNDER Umpire. And not one, but TWO starting pitchers in ULTRA sharp current form. 

Before we get into the pitching matchup, let’s take a look at the series history O/U patterns… and pertinent individual TEAM Over / Under trends that apply to tonight’s game.
This DODGERS / CARDINALS series has gone UNDER the Total 67% of the time over the last five seasons. Official record in the last 52 games as been 17-35 O/U. That includes 2-7 O/U in the last nine meetings… and 1-5 O/U in the last six played IN Los Angeles. 
CARDINALS: An amazing 15-34-3 O/U dating back to last season in GAME THREE of any series (69% Under the Total)… 1-5-1 O/U in their last seven games overall… 2-6-1 O/U n their last nine ROAD games… and 0-3-1 O/U in their last four games versus right-handed starting pitchers.
DODGERS: 4-10-1 O/U in last 15 games overall…3-9-1 O/U last 13 games versus WINNING (> .500) opponents… 0-5-1 O/U in last six HOME games… 1-9 O/U vs any opponent who scored 5+ runs in their previous game… and 1-5 O/U run their last six games vs right-handed starting pitchers.

Wanna talk about HOT, dominating pitchers? You got it. Getting the call for the Redbirds will be JACK FLAHERTY. From a W/L standpoint, nothing special here (9-11 in his 20 team starts). But his ERA on the year has been great (3.05 in 109 innings pitched). That means despite great numbers (3.4 K to BB ratio and 3.05 ERA), he has not been getting much in terms of offensive run support from his St Louis teammates. if we throw away the 18 runs that the Cards scored in his July 20th start, he has gotten only 3.8 rune per game behind him in his other 19 starts. We’ll be Going LOW at an ideal time for Flaherty. In his last three starts he’s pitched SHUTOUT Baseball TWICE. His ERA In his last three starts has been a microscopic 0.95. And he will be facing the Dodgers for the first time EVER tonight.
On the flip side, we also have a good one going for the host Dodgers. Aside from ace Clayton Kershaw, WALKER BUEHLER has been the BEST regular starter for the season for LA. He comes in with an ERA of only 2.71 on the season. He's allowed only 10 home runs in 87.1 innings pitched on the year. He’s been a little shaky in his DAYTIME starts (5.87 ERA), but DOMINATING at NIGHT (2.24). Like his counterpart, Buehler is in his current BEST form of the season. His ERA over his last four starts is only 1.42 (1-3 O/U). Also like his counterpart, this will be the FIRST time that Buehler has faced the Cardinals in his career (Advantage: PITCHER). And to tip it all off, the fact that this is a HOME start is key. Buehler has made EIGHT starts at home this season. His record in those eight starts: 1-7 O/U with an ERA of 2.77.

We close our writeup with the ‘Man in Blue’. Working behind the dish in tonight’s series finale will be CHAD FAIRCHILD. For the entire season, Fairchild comes in with a 8-14-1 O/U record (64% Unders). But it’s what he has done LATELY that has looked so UNDER-whelming. After starting the season with a pedestrian 8-8-1 O/U record, Fairchild has gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in his last six game dating back to the begging of July. Average combined runs per game during this LOW-scoring period has been just 5.7. We also note that Fairchild has gone a perfect 0-4 O/U in his last four St Louis Cardinals games… 2-6 O/U in his last eight Los Angles Dodgers games… and a PERFECT 0-5-1 O/U on WEDNESDAYS in the last year and a half.


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Pick Creation Time:
08/22/2018 8:26 AM
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