This is as much of a fade of the Reds as a bet on Milwaukee. Homer Bailey has a WHIP of 1.63 in 88 innings and has allowed 110 hits with 18 HR's in those innings. He's allowed five earned runs in his alst two starts (in not many innings) and throw 100+ pitches in three of four games. If Milwaukee can't get a ton here they can get a to anywhere, especially factoring in that almost to a man they've hammered Bailey. I'll save you the numbers. In spite of Anderson's last two rocky starts, he's got a season-long WHIP of 1.20, the Reds have hit .217 in 83 at bats against him, and Votto is on the DL. There's a massive bullpen advantage here as well. Milwaukee is a significantly better team at home and the Reds on the road are significantly worse on the road, and much worse against a RHP than a LHP. It may be a bit square, but the Brewers ought to roll the Reds tonight.
In other games:
It's hard not to like the Pirates. Atlanta hasn't seen much of Archer and the Pirates just took two from the Cubs - Pittsburgh's bullpen has been unhittable lately.
I have to like Boston with that total coming down, simply because I trust their bullpen far more than I trust Cleveland's.