7:10pm ET / 4:10pm PT
#957-958
San Francisco Giants w/ Bumgarner @ Cincinnati Reds w/ Harvey
3*** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL
The Best UNDER Umpire of the last two seasons will be behind the dish for tonight’s Game Two of the REDS / GIANTS series at The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. With that said, we have a pretty good chance at a similar outcome as last night’s LOW-scoring outcome (final score 2 to1). When the two scheduled starters are Madison Bumgarner and Matt Harvey, we could very well see (a) ONE guy throw a gem… or (b) BOTH guys duke it out in a classic pitchers duel. If either of those occur, chances are pretty good that our UNDER will bring home the bacon.
It all starts with the Man in Blue. When we have a chance to ride the #1 UNDER Umpire in the League, and in a great pitchers matchup to boot… well be the first to the window. Getting the call at 7:10pm ET tonight will be DAN BELLINIO. Of the 89 Major League Baseball Umpires who have ogled at least one game this season, Bellino is the BEST ‘Under’ guy with a year-to-date record of 3-14-3 O/U. That’s 82% of all his games that have gone UNDER (followed by Dimuro {3-12 O/U}, Dreckman {5-16 O/U}, and Cuzzi {5-14 O/U}. Average connie runs in Bellunio’s games this year has been just 7.0. In fact, he’s one of only FOUR Major League Umpires that is averaging 7 or less combined ROG for the season (the others being Dimuro, Eddings, and Nelson). But that’s nothing. In Bellino’s NATIONAL LEAGUE games this season, the average runs per game is only 5.8 (2-9 O/U). While we are not the topic of the Nation League, I also dug this up out if the database: In Belliunio’s last five GIANTS games… and last five REDS games… the results has been 90% UNDER theTotal (1-9 O/U). As I mentioned in paragraph #1, Bellino’s numbers are not a surprise. He has gone 25-47-8 O/U in the last two seasons, whose s the highest percentage of UNDERS of any Umpire in that same time frame.
Sharp Baseball bettors already know that the Giants have virtually no offense at all. They are one of only SIX Major League Baseball teams that is averaging 4.0 or LESS runs per game on the season. In fact, in their last 14 games… San Fran has scored 4 per less total runs in TEN games (3.2 runs per game average). So it’s no surprise that the Giants have gone 2-8-1 O/U in their last 11 games… and 0-5-1 O/U in their last six games. On the flip side, Cincinnati has had their offensive issues as of late, as well. In their last 12 games, the Reds have scored 4 or less runs TEN times (only 2.8 runs per game!).
When southpaw Madison Bumgarner takes to the hill, we ALWAYS have a chance at a ‘Lights Out’ performance. Particularly as of LATE. He’s started 11 games on the season… has a TYD ERA of only 2.71… and EIGHT of his 11 starts have gone UNDER the Total (73% Unders). In his nine NIGHT starts, the results are 2-7 O/U with an ERA of 2.67 (78% Unders). He’s had it 'Dialed In' in his last SIX starts (2.25 ERA / only 1 home run allowed in 3 6 innings), and even BETTER in his last three (1.50 ERA). Dating back to last season, Bumgarner has gone 6-19-4 O/U in his last 29 starts… 0-8 O/U in Game Two of a series… 3-12-2 O/U pitching on 4 days of rest… and 0-5 O/U on Saturdays. His counterpart is Matt Harvey. The Cincinnati starter is in good form, and is coming in off his longest outing of the season (7 innings / 7 K’s / Only 2 earned runs allowed vs Arizona). In his last ten starts (since the middle of June), Harvey has allowed 3 or less earned runs EIGHT times. And he also allowed ZERO home runs in six of those ten starts.