Let's get back at it - although I didn't REALLY leave it. Did football work (we were up in both CFB and NFL last year) and fished a bit to decompress. Biggest grind (MLB) ever - every year. Football and basketball seem to require far less hours - but still a LOT. So, in this game we've got Danny Duffy, who has a huge upside and ho has already faced the Twins twice this season. He beat them at home, and shut them out (but lost) at Minnesota. What I really like is that in 150 at bats this Twins team has taken him over the fence exactly once. Minnesota is under .500 against LHP and exactly 15-28 on the road, so I don't get how they can be favored, even over the Royals, TBH, and not with a bullpen that slid into the All Star break with a 7.39 ERA over the previous week, and who have 7 saves and 10 blown saves on the road this season. Gibson shut out the Royals back in May, and as rough a the season has been for KC at this point they're still playing for pride, and they remember. They've got to give their fans something at home and it starts tonight. They've hit Gibson well - most all of the regulars, anyhow. This is just a case of perception versus reality - KC lost a bunch recently (all season, really) but the last two series' were on the road and the previous series' were against Boston, Cleveland, and at Seattle - so although they don't match up against really good teams, Minnesota isn't a really good team.
In other games as of this morning -
The Braves might have some value, especially the RL. As you know when elite pitchers get hit it's almost always against a team that sees them often, and Anibal has been pitching well enough.
There is no chance I can take the Phillies, with or without Arietta, at -150 or more against anyone - so, by default, it's the Padres RL or pass.
Mahle has been pitching well and of course the Reds were on a tear. However, the Pirates are the better team and Taillon is the better pitcher.
I wish I'd have been quicker on the trigger with both Toronto and the Yankees. The price might be too high and I refuse to play the RL with home teams (most of the time) because they may only get 8 at bats. That may be enough, but it does eliminate 11% of the at bats. I could see using the Jays and Yankees in a ML parlay and may well just do that.
I have been looking for chances to take the Tigers - they a MUCH better at home and MUCH better against LHP - the RL is quite doable there.
I know Martin Perez sucks, but there is no chances of taking Cleveland at that price on the road with a bullpen that's been a f'n disaster.
I am not sure what to make of Skaggs/Kuechel yet.
Wade LeBlanc is having a season. However, Wade LeBlanc at -200 is simply not an option. I am not suggesting taking the White Sox, but, with these days off it can effect teams in many ways, some good and some not-so-much. Rarely do any teams continue the same momentum, good or bad, that they had last week.
If and when things change (don't they always??) I'll add, edit, update as usual. Same work we're doing in football and basketball, every day, all year.....