Why would you not bet on one of the best teams in baseball at this price, when they have a pitcher (Severino) that's 14-2 and the Yankees are 17-2 in games he's started? He hasn't been this cheap since he pitched at Boston against Sale, and that was back in April. That was also the ONLY game this season he allowed more than three earned runs, and it's pretty clear who has the better bullpen in this game. For that matter, the Yankees have the better lineup, too. It's not easy to bet against Kluber, but when he misses the ball leaves the park, as he's allowed 17 HR's this season which is almost as many as all of last season. In a game that figures to be low scoring, all it's going to take is one of those mistakes to make the difference, and the Yankees have 154 jacks this season, or a full 24 more than the team in second, Houston. Only Oakland has more jacks on the road, too. It'd be nice to take Kluber, but with a bullpen that's got a 9.45 ERA over the last seven games, that's just not possible. New York as several ways to win. Severino can out duel Kluber. The Yankees can light up Kluber. It can be close until we get to Robertson, Betances, and Chapman, none of whom threw a pitch last night. The only way Cleveland wins is if Kluber shuts out New York for nine innings, and against the best offense in baseball, I'll take my chances.
Other games I am looking at - I lean Rockies in the afternoon, or morning if you're REALLY far West. They've handled Ray well. The market seems to like Baltimore and Gausman, as tough as that is to wrap my head around, but it is at this point, undeniable. I am toying with Blake Snell and the Rays. Yes, the All-Star snub and the expectation is that he'll throw a gem. I've also seen plenty of cases like this where these guys show why the are NOT on the All Star team. Gibson doesn't suck and the Rays can't hit - lean under there for sure but will wait out any potential bet on either side. Snell is either a gift at that price, or the Trojan Horse.