Pro Pick From
Dave Essler

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(At current odds)

Wednesday, July 11, 2018 5:10PM - MLB

929 St. Louis Cardinals
930 Chicago White Sox White Sox










MLB Totals







Last week I said I'd likely fade Rodon in his next start after a relatively high pitch count at Houston. Only one other time this season did he throw 100+ pitches and in the subsequent game he was drilled by Cleveland, and add to that the fact that he's a fly ball pitcher, and we have perfect weather. The White Sox bullpenhas sucked all year, and sucked even worse the last seven games with an 8.63 ERA. As a team Chicago has allowed 4 or more (usually way more) runs in ten of their last eleven games, so giving St. Louis a DH probably doesn't bode well for that streak ending anytime soon. Weaver is ALSO not a ground ball pitcher and his last four games have gone over TEN runs. He's allowed six dingers in those four games, at least one in every game.The St. Louis bullpen has been better than the Chicago pen, but not by much with an ERA of 5.78 over the last week. St. Louis is a MUCH better "over" team against left handed pitching. Paul Nauert is behind the plate, and in three of his last five games there have been 12 or more runs. This one should get there long before we get deep into the bullpens.

I did this at Noon EST, 6AM HST - 

914 TAM / 913 DET OVER 7.5 Greek
Analysis: I'm going to take a one-marble shot here. The total coming down was clearly a reaction to the lineups, which aren't awesome, but it's Jordan Zimmerman who two-hit the Rays mot long ago and we do like the hitters the next go 'round. The Tigers just saw two innings of Wood, an can we really trust either bullpen? Nick Mahrley (HPU) is the x factor - he's not been a great over umpire, but he doesn't have a long history and he's had what SHOULD have been very high scoring games to call - it's not enough to overcome what I think is an over reaction to the lineups. It's a marble, not Fort Knox.
Pick Creation Time:
07/11/2018 7:18 AM
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