Well, Cueto has been scratched so this is a no-bet -- for those on the daily only, email Tom and get it taken care of, and I will poke him about it now.
Working backwards, last nights' game had a clear affect on the bullpens. The Cubs' pen was already used Sunday in Cincinnati so they didn't come into the game fresh - Cishek and Strop didn't throw a lot of pitches, but there's just warming up, and they both threw Sunday. San Francisco use five relievers, and Blach, Watson, and Moronta all threw for the second straight day. The only fresh LHP the Giants have in the pen is Derek Holland. So,if not runs early, then runs late. However, it looks like Quintana might be getting tired. Three straight games of giving up at least one HR and three straight games of double-digit fly ball outs. The Giants beat him in Wrigley earlier this season, and that was the first time many SF regulars had seen him. Advantage San Francisco. Cueto didn't look great against the Cardinals coming off the DL, and most pitchers don't. However, he only threw five innings and I just don't think his timing is right yet. Heyward, Rizzo, and Schwarber have all taken him over the fence. The Cubs are much more potent against RHP - and Heyward and Schwarber both sat last night against Suarez. We knew that going in. Tonight, different story. The Cubs are rested, the Giants will score off Quintana. The weather is great and if this weren't a big park we'd never get this number - we'll take it.
1:15 PST/4:15 EST/10:15 HST --
The rest of the story -
I'd really like to fade Hellickson but he got me last time out. Musgrove is off the DL with a finger problem so that's not an attractive option, either. I COULD make a small case for the over but the market disagrees right now.
Yes, everyone likes the Mets. I'm not going to "lemming" that one because I really don't have time to look at their Minor League stats and I don't trust either offense or either bullpen, even if I COULD get a great feel for those two starters.
The money is obviously on Patrick Corbin. He's a stud but as I've said for years, when a quality pitcher gets hit it's most often by a division team that knows him, and Anderson has been pitching great.
The case can be made for the Padres RL, especially if you pay attention to the market. I'd probably 1* that one but we've already got marbles in that game so I'm probably not forcing it.
I know Baltimore sucks. I know that Tanaka is good, but he's another one that could get hit by someone that knows him and his home/road splits have always favored him at home. Beware there.
I like the Tigers against LHP far more than RHP, or I'd make the Detroit case here. I still don't think the Rays ought to be -190 with a starter that's probably not pitching more than 2-3 innings. Or any starter for that matter.
I can make a case that both Richards and Leake give up a few runs - Richards didn't look great in his first game back and Leake is a Jekyll/Hyde guy. Seattle and over if I had to, or if you have to if you're up late or in a time zone that forces you to bet on something at that hour.