Lots of LONG outs here --- hopefully some go a LITTLE further ---
There are tons of ways this gets to 9 and not very many whereby it doesn't. Let's start with Barria, who people need to remember he's only 21. As teams are getting a book on him, they're hitting him. Five HR's allowed in his last three games and a fly ball rate that's increasing. I do know the D-Backs have had offensive issues at times, but here they get a DH. So combine that with the Angels miserable (and getting worse) I expect Arizona to score here. The Halos have seen plenty of Grienke, who not only hasn't been in good form lately getting hammered by Pittsburgh and HIS flyball rate is up, but he's someone most all of the Halos' hitters have had good success against. At home this season his ERA is a mere 2.40 and that's in stark contrast to his road ERA of 5.91. The Arizona bullpen was used (and abused by the Mets) Sunday, so they aren't in good shape. The Angels scored but were scored ON in Oakland, and we rarely have to be concerned with weather in LA. In fact, it's sunny and clear as usual with a slight breeze blowing out. This one should be easy and I obviously disagree with the move off of 8 over night.
Other games:
It's hard to not want to fade the Cardinals and the late game as well as their bullpen usage last night. It's Pivetta or nothing, but it almost looks TOO easy - we know how those can go. I may add, we'll see, but I TEND to agree with over being in play as does the smart money as of now.
I guess they figure Chacin is "back." I'm not sure he ever was "there." He's been lit every other game and this is the "other" to be lit, and he threw 100 pitches last outing which for him is a lot. He's only done it one other time this year way back in April, so it is clearly Pittsburgh or nothing. But, after the Reds took them to task I am equally liking the over in that one, too, and may add it before all is said and done. Williams just hasn't been sharp at all lately.
An "over" of only 8.5 almost looks to easy at Wrigley. I guess they figure Chatwood will give them up and Maeda won't, or at least that's what the market is suggesting. Chatwood sucks too bad for me to think about betting on, but every now and then he'll put a game together. He IS a ground ball pitcher which does make taking the over that much harder for me. This might be a great game to wait it out and if the first few innings are scoreless then perhaps get an in-game number that's much more reasonable. This could be another one that "looks to easy" if you don't do the work. It's also the first game of a series so no way to tell who's calling balls and strikes which clearly is a factor.
You guys know I do like Caleb Smith, but he threw a lot of pitches last game (107) and the last time he went close to that he was crushed at Arizona. I have to like the Giants here - and MAYBE the over - but SF didn't hit in LA this weekend and of course AT & T is a pitchers' park extraordinaire. Between that and the fact that SF lost two of three to the Fish in Miami last week, I have to like SF - Miami's bullpen on the road has some pretty horrid numbers.
The money is backing Texas and Colon, or fading Kennedy and Kansas City, or both. Texas' late comeback yesterday CAN carry itself forward, OR it can have a negative effect as the emotional win takes it's toll. The Royals were just beaten soundly, but by Houston which you'd almost expect. So, that makes taking Texas a bit harder. Colon is STILL a fly ball pitcher and Texas STILL has bullpen issues which were over shadowed by their comeback last night. The Royals' pen has been getting crushed, so the over is a probable play - it's looks a but square-ish, but taking one of these teams, say the Royals, AND the over is a good bet because I don't see Texas winning a low scoring game on the road.
We've got this total in Anaheim and yes, I'm annoyed that it came crashing down but the work said otherwise. I was tempted to take the Halos, too - Grienke doesn't have the luxury of a pitcher in the batting order as he does in the NL, which matters. But, Barria is a fly ball pitcher and that's eventually going to catch up with him. However, Arizona may not be the team that does it. As I said earlier, five dingers allowed in his last three games - only a great game at home against Texas (who struggle) in between. It's so much a matter of that bullpen right now and what they did (or didn't do) yesterday.
I have no real strong opinion in the Nats/Yankees game. These two just faced each other. Gray lost a 4-5 game but neither starter did much to write home about. I think both make adjustments - Gray has pitched MUCH better the last month-plus, so with that NYY pen I cannot bet against them. But, they do have Gray batting which somewhat changes things. I don't know what this one-and-done game is for NY, either. They've been at home, fly down for this game, then back to NY for a series starting tomorrow with the Mariners. Washington is home for the next week (Baltimore/Philadelphia) so that might give them an edge if there's an edge to be found. If you made me, Washington (you guys know I love home underdogs).
For now, that's all I got -
One more thing -Whit Merrifield is playing for KC (we/I like him), and Andrus (for Texas) was just activated off the DL - so, that makes an over bet in KC more doable - not sure why it isn't being bet - probably because it's ALREADY 9.5 - I'll wait, because IF it goes UP (doubtful) then TEN is a push and not a loss (and less vig) and that's the price for waiting, I suppose.