1:05pm ET / 10:05am PT
#953-954
COLORADO ROCKIES w/ Marquez @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES w/ Velasquez
2** Play on: OVER the TOTAL
We are releasing this Thursday AFTERNOON play as soon as we can. In fact, we are coming out with this play on the OVER even prior to Wednesday’s night’s Game Two between the Phillies and Rockies. As we type this at 6:00pm ET on Wednesday, the opening OU line for this Thursday afternoon game is at 8.5 runs. The scheduled pitching matchup is German Marquez of the Rockies vs Vince Velasquez of the Phillies. And if this schedule matchup is indeed correct, we want a nice piece of the OVER. It certainly doesn't hurt us that the Thursday weather forecast is for some pretty significant winds blowing OUT to Right Field… in the 16 to 20 miles per hour range.
Neither starter is in good form. In fact, they both got shelled in their last start. German Marquez of the Rockies has a 4.79 ERA on the year, but 5.29 in his last three starts. He has a 4.79 ERA on the year, but 6.26 in his DAYTIME starts. And not only that, but he’s been allowing an alarming amount of GOPHER BALLS as of late. And that’s a good sign for OVER bettors. In his last start, Marquez allowed THREE home runs in a 9-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. And in the start before that, he allowed TWO home runs in a 12-4 loss to the La Dodgers. His ERA in those last two starts: 8.10. And the hometown Phillies have a lifetime team batting average of .429 vs Marquez, to boot.
On the flip side, Vince Velasquez is off his WORST start of the season. Last Friday, he started against the Milwaukee Brewers. He didn’t even make it out of the 4th inning. In 3.2 innings of work, Velasquez allowed NINE hits… and TEN earned runs. His team ended up losing to Milwaukee by the score of 12 to 4. His ERA on the season is 4.95… but 7.47 in his last three starts. His ERA on the season is 4.95… but 7.85 at HOME. And His ERA on the season is 4.95… but 6.00 in DAYTME starts. Like his counterpart, Velasquez its also giving up the HOME RUNS at a high rate as of late (8 HRS allowed in last 5 home starts covering only 22 innings). The visiting Rockies have a lifetime .340 batting average against Velasquez.
Sealing the deal for us is the Man in Blue. Working behind the dish in the Thursday afternoon series finale will be relatively new full-time Umpire QUINN WOLCOTT. He’s averaged 9.5 combined runs per game in his NL affairs this season. And speaking of the ‘Senior Circuit’, Wolcott has gone 20-9-2 O/U in his last 31 NATIONAL LEAGUE games over the last 2 years (10.3 runs per game)… and 36-21-4 O/U in the last 4+ seasons.