Pro Pick From
Dave Essler

Make this pick

(At current odds)

Wednesday, June 13, 2018 4:05PM - MLB

907 Colorado Rockies
vs.
908 Philadelphia Phillies

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

Wednesday

MLB Totals

OV COL/PHI

7-2

8½-115

3

W

300

Analysis
Max-Bet for those.......
This was an easy call after the Rockies got that three runs in the ninth last night - it forced the Phillies into using one of their "A" guys to close the game out, and now it's a Philadelphia bullpen that's bringing a 6.75 ERA over the last week into this game. The Rockies' pen isn't any better - they've got a WHIP of 1,95 over the last seven games so if we don't get them early we'll get them late. Pivetta has had his ups and downs, but when the Rockies are hitting it doesn't matter who's on the mound and Colorado has scored four or more runs in 15 of 16 games. Tyler Anderson has had three straight 100+ pitch games and that's a big red flag for me, not to mention he's a big-time fly ball pitcher who has allowed 11 jacks in only 67 innings pitched. Jeff Kellogg will be calling balls and strikes, and he's not the best umpire we could have, but if we did have a better umpire this would be a bigger labeled play. It's going to be warm, humid, and there's a nice breeze blowing out to right-center, which for all the LHH's in both lineups is another "thing" that's clearly in our favor. Both Pivetta and Anderson are far more effective versus RHH's - so in the end both teams ought to get to four runs which somehow makes this a winner, assuming one of these teams doesn't go off, which is also a distinct possibility.

I  also played this:
914 TAM / 913 TOR OVER 7 Pinnacle
Analysis: At "7"  this is SO worth a marble - both teams need three runs to push and both bullpens are either shot or suck. Happ is NOT invincible and honestly, the money seems to think the Rays might get it done. If that's the case, they'll do it with a bullpen because Font shouldn't be expected to last too long and they played that card last night. I don't understand the big money on the under - both lineups are respectable - at 8 or 7.5 I wouldn't have done this, but at 7, for a marble, just needing three by each team to push, I gotta do it.

And I was looking for someone to parlay Sale/Boston with - plenty of time but at the moment I don't see anything. I cannot fade Atlanta at home against a team (the Mets) that cannot hit - maybe Mets F5 and Atlanta for the game.

The money is clearly on Chacin and the Brewers over Montgomery and the Cubs - if anything I lean under there.

I'm not sure Seattle doesn't get it done again - Richards' splits on the road aren't very good. Waiting for lineups to see if there's an edge somewhere. 

As always, thanks for your trust. Next.

** 
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Pick Creation Time:
Wednesday - 6:19 AM
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