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PLAY: OREGON
RATING: TRIPLE DIME BET
I'm not sure what this line will do - I suspect we might get slightly better at some point and it closes about where it is. The Ducks are a tough out at home, and are playing their last two home games Thursday and Saturday, so I expect maximum effort here. Arizona State is a solid home team, but not so much on the road. They're 3-4 away and have lost to Colorado, Washington, and Stanford (Arizona as well but the aforementioned are no better than the Ducks. Oregon has two home (conference) losses - by one to Utah and by five to SoCal. Oregon already beat ASU on the road, and in that game ASU shot 43% from behind the arc and took 17 more free throws. They didn't win the game, and back in Oregon the Ducks should get the call and ASU isn't going to go off from deep. ASU has the 10th ranked defense in the Pac-12, which doesn't fly with me on the road. ASU plays fairly quickly, and the Ducks should both slow that down and they've got a deeper bench. The Ducks have the #2 two-point offense in the Conference. They're #2 in steals. Arizona State does nothing well except run (in Pac 12 play) - stop Tra Holder, and Oregon wins the game by plenty. If it's all all close late, Oregon is an excellent FT shooting team.