Analysis
IMPORTANT NOTE -- As
the start of the Super Bowl approaches I shall be posting and adding
Prop Recommendations right after the following (and rather lengthy)
analysis and selection for the game. Please be sure to check back
between the time you first read the following and Noon Pacific time on
Sunday when I expect to have made my final posting of props. The next and final update shall be today (Sunday) at approximately 1:00 PM Pacific time
At
the outset there are many compelling arguments that can be made for
each side. Perhaps the greatest argument that can be made for New
England is their experience versus that of Philadelphia. This will be
eighth Super Bowl appearance for the Patriots in the era of coach Bill
Belichick and QB Tom Brady. The Pats are 5-2 in the prior seven. One
came against the Eagles in Philadelphia’s most recent Super Bowl
appearance, 13 seasons ago in Super Bowl 39.
But as also noted
earlier, each of the 7 New England Super Bowls in this era was decided
by from 3 to 7 points. That can either be taken as an ability for the
Patriots to win close Super Bowls or their inability to blow out their
foes in Super Bowls.
The teams had similar paths to the Super
Bowl with each involved in a tight come from behind win and also winning
easily. The Pats routed Tennessee 35-14 in their Divisional round win
and then had to overcome deficits of 14-3 and 20-10 to defeat
Jacksonville to win the AFC title. Philadelphia’s path was the reverse,
coming from behind to defeat Atlanta 15-10 in their Divisional round
win and then easily defeating Minnesota 38-7 to win the NFC Title after
falling behind early 7-0.
It is reasonable to think the Patriots’
dynasty is starting to wind down after two decades of excellence. But
Belichick remains the best coach in the NFL and Brady had another
MVP-caliber seasons at QB.
The Eagles showed this was more than a
team that relied on the excellent play of starting QB Carson Wentz.
The second season signal caller was himself enjoying an MVP season when
he was injured late in Philly’s Week 14 win at the Rams. But to be 11-2
with Wentz in the lineup and then win 2 more games when Nick Foles took
over shows the Eagles also got excellent play from their defense and
special teams, indicative of being a complete football team that earned
the NFC’s #1 seed.
The Patriots deserve to be favored largely
based on their edge in experience. The statistical profiles of these
teams can make a case that they are very evenly matched and that the
Eagles may actually have had the better overall season.
It is
expected that TE Rob Gronkowski will clear concussion protocol and be
able to play for the Patriots. He was able to practice over the
weekend. He missed last season’s Super Bowl against Atlanta due to
injury and it can be theorized that had he been able to play the Pats
would not have fallen behind 28-3 and needing to stage their remarkable
comeback that enabled them to win in overtime.
Yet a case can
also be made that the Pats should have lost both last season’s Super
Bowl and the one 2 years earlier against Seattle and conjecture that
this is the season they run out of good fortune. Still, it must be
acknowledged that their good fortune was also due to having make the
plays that needed to be made.
The Eagles have a defense capable
of pressuring Brady much as the Giants did in their two Super Bowl wins
over a much younger Brady. The ability of the Eagles to establish and
maintain a pass rush will be key.
Belichick has long been able to
take away a team’s strength and force opponents to win the game with
their weakness. The Eagles offense is well balanced, even with Foles
replacing Wentz. And so is their defense.
In the regular
season the Eagles ranked #7 in total offense (#3 in rushing, #13 in
passing). On defense the Eagles were #4 overall (#1 against the run,
#17 against the pass). On a yards per play basis Philly was #10 on
offense (5.45 ypp) and #8 on defense (5.02 ypp).
The Patriots
were #1 in total offense (#10 in rushing, #2 in passing) but #29 in
total defense (#20 vs the run, #30 vs the pass). New England was #5 in
offensive yards per play (5.89) and #30 defensively (5.73).
Of
course games are not won or lost on the basis of stats and sometimes the
stats can be misleading or skewed. This would be the case for New
England’s defense which made dramatic strides over the second half of
the season, allowing 418 average total yards per game in their first 8
games but improved to allow just 315 ypg in games 9 through 16, an
incredible improvement of 103 yards per game. That improvement was also
shown in yards per play. After allowing 6.8 ypp in games 1 through 8
the Patriots allowed just 5.1 ypp in games 9 through 16, a remarkable
improvement of 1.7 ypp.
In football the bottom line is scoring
and preventing scoring regardless of how that is accomplished. What is
truly remarkable is how evenly these teams performed over the course of
the season. In their 16 regular season games New England scored 458
points and allowed 296. The Eagles scored 457 points while allowing
295. Both teams had an identical +162 scoring margin and both had the
same 13-3 record.
Interestingly, the Patriots allowed 128 of
their 296 in the first 4 games of the season, an average of 32 points
per game (and 43% of their total points allowed for the season). Over
their final 12 games (games 5 through 16), the Patriots allowed 168
points, or 14.0 points per game).
With these teams so evenly
matched the points appear worth taking and a case can easily be made for
an outright upset win by Philadelphia.
The key in making such a
call, however, is coming to grips with the huge experience edge held by
the Patriots and whether there are reasons to think the Eagles can
overcome that huge intangible. On the basis of the stats, the matchups,
strengths and weaknesses this is a dead even game. Most of our Power
Ratings have these teams equally rated with Philadelphia enjoying the
edge in several. But just what is the ‘value’ of New England’s
experience edge? And how might that edge come into play? Are there
factors that may diminish that edge or at least minimize it to some
extent?
Perhaps one factor may be that the Eagles have two key
players – one on offense, one on defense – that were on last season’s
Super Bowl winning Patriots team.
Running Back LeGarrette Blount
and defensive end Chris Long were part of last season’s Patriots and
each sat in meetings with current Patriots coaches in preparing for
their game against Atlanta. Hopefully for the Eagles both Blount and
Long paid close attention in those meetings and can share some insights
and unique ways in which Belichick and his staff prepared his team on
each side of the football. It could be that just one such detail
results in a key play made by the Eagles in Super Bowl 52.
Whether
this translates to an actual edge or merely remains a potential edge
may not be known until or unless the subject is raised following the
playing of the game. But it is one worth considering.
Pay
attention to the pointspread during the week. Once Gronkowski’s status
is clarified we should see some line movement. The most likely scenario
is that Gronk will be cleared to play and, when announced, we could
well see the pointspread move back up towards the opening line of
Patriots - 6.
It might not be get above 6 but for an instant.
The best case for Eagles backers would be for public money to pour in on
the Pats and for the Wise Guys, who would look to take the Eagles with
the most points available, to wait for + 6 ½ or + 7. That line of + 7
has a low probability of occurring but if line reaches 6 ½ and stays
there for a few hours on, say Saturday afternoon or evening, then 7s
might show on Sunday.
If you prefer the Patriots you might wish
to act early as - 4 ½ may not last unless it becomes likely that Gronk
won’t play. Based on what we learned over the weekend that announcement
is unlikely and the lines is much more likely to rise to - 5 than to
drop to - 4.
Ultimately the call here is for the Eagles to play
as well as they have played during most of the season and in their two
Playoff wins. New England has certainly shown some vulnerabilities,
nearly being outplayed and losing to a well prepared and fundamentally
sound Jacksonville that also lacked experience and had to rely on an oft
criticized QB (Blake Bortles) who rose to the occasion and nearly led
the Jaguars to an unlikely road win in the AFC Championship game. The
ingredients are there for the Eagles to pull the upset and win Super
Bowl 52. It’s almost always much easier to make a case for the
favorite, especially one with the past accomplishments of the Patriots.
And whereas there is pressure on the Eagles in what is unfamiliar
territory for them, there is also pressure on the Patriots to do what
they are not only expected to do now, but what they have been favored to
do since winning last season’s Super Bowl.
The forecast is for
Philadelphia to pull that upset and to win by a margin that has been a
familiar theme for Patriot Super Bowls (and by what was also the margin
by which the Pats defeated the Eagles in Super Bowl 39). The final
forecast for the 2017 season is for Philadelphia to win Super Bowl 52,
defeating New England 27-24 and sending the game slightly OVER the Total
that currently sits at 48.
"Tandem" Props are props that are paired and related to one another. Our historical approach has been
to look for a pair of props that are both related in some way to one another and both of which carry a
"plus" price so that if one of the props hits you are guaranteed to show a profit. In general the math behind
the props suggests that you are most likely to go 1-1 but with a greater chance of going 2-0 than of going 0-2.
Tandem
Prop Pair # 1 -- First Pass by Nick Foles & Tom Brady Will be
INCOMPLETE (Foles priced at + 200; Brady priced at + 220)
This is one
of our annual props that looks for one of the two quarterbacks to be
off the mark in his first passing attempt. Although both have had fine
post seasons, that does not necessarily mean they will be on target in
their first Super Bowl pass. Nerves, timing and defensive
recognition/preparation/pressure are just some of the factors that could
prevent success. From more of a mathematical perspective, the
likelihood of two independent events, each with a 70% chance of success
(i.e. QB completion percentage), BOTH occurring is just 49%, (70% times
70%) meaning that there is a 51 % chance that at least one of the passes
is incomplete. The chance for BOTH to be complete would be 30% times
30%, or 9%. The chance of one completion and one incompletion, again on a
pure mathematical basis, is 42%. Including their two Playoff games
Foles completed 54.6% of his 164 pass attempts whereas Brady completed
66 4% of his 672 pass attempts. Using those percentages would put the
pure mathematical percentage for both passes to be complete at 42.9%
which, at less than 50%, makes this "plus/plus" prop supportable for
play from that perspective as well.
Tandem Prop Pair # 2 --
Each Team WILL Convert a Fourth Down Attempt (Conversions Due To
Penalties Excluded) -- Philadelphia Priced at -125, New England Priced
at +105
There is the possibility that the game situation will call
for one, if not both, teams to go for it on fourth down whether it be
late in the game in an effort to keep a critical drive alive or a
decision based on field position rather than punt or try a long field
goal. The importance of this game suggests teams will be more aggressive
in certain situations than they would be during the regular season
which lends support to laying the vig on the Eagles at -125.
Each
Punter Will Have At Least 1 Touchback -- R Allen (NE) priced at + 320; D
Jones (PHI) priced at + 240 -- Once again this prop is looking for just
one of the two punters to have a touchback at one point during the
game. Field position becomes critical in Super Bowls and often teams
will choose to attempt to pin an opponent deep in its own territory
rather than risk a long FG attempt. The Total # of Punts prop is 4 for
Allen and 4 1/2 for Jones -- roughly one attempt per punter per quarter.
At a better than 2-1 price playing the YES is more supportable part of
this prop
"Head to Head" props are similar in one respect to the "Tandem" props in that these props require you
to correctly pick 1 of just 2 options. But they differ in that they stand alone and are not considered to be
related to the chances of cashing other props even if there may be some connection or correlation between
the specified prop and some other prop.
Head
to Head Prop # 1 -- Will the Team That Scores First Win the Game? -- NO
is Priced at + 145 -- Although New England is favored both to win the
game and to score first that does not necessarily correlate to the team
scoring first winning the game. Although this has happened more often
than not over the past 17 Super Bowls the fact that 7 of the last 10 and
13 of the last 16 Super Bowls have been decided by 6 points or less
suggests that in the absence of a dominant team the team to score first
depends more upon circumstance than favoritism. It is worth noting that
in the 7 prior Super Bowls New England has played in the Brady/Belichick
era the Patriots have not scored in the first quarter in any of those 7
games!
Head to Head Prop # 2 -- Will There Be A Defensive Or
Special Teams Touchdown -- YES is priced at + 175 -- Surprisingly,
dating back to Super Bowl 27, there has been a special teams or
defensive teams touchdown in 16 of the last 25 Super Bowls and in 5 of
the 15 there were multiple such scores. HOWEVER, interestingly, in 5 of
the 8 New England Super Bowls in this period, there were no special
teams or defensive touchdowns although there was such a score last
season in SB 51 (the others were in the Pats' the first 2 of those 8
appearances). In the first of those 8 appearances (SB 31) Bill Parcells
was the Pats' coach. Put another way, in 12 of the last 17 Super Bowls
not involving New England, there has been at least 1, and on 5
occasions, more than 1, special teams or defensive TDs.
Head
to Head Prop # 3 -- Will the First Kickoff by New England's Stephen
Gostkowski Result in a Touchback? -- NO is priced at - 120 -- More than
perhaps any other coach New England's Bill Belichick knows the value of
field position. When the rules were changed to reduce injuries caused by
kick returns to give teams possession at the 25 rather than the 20 when
kickoffs resulted in touchbacks Belichick realized the value of his
kick coverage teams to prevent returns to the 25 yard line or more.
Unlike most coaches, rather than fear the long kickoff return Belichick
has confidence in his coverage team to pin an opponent inside the 25, if
not inside the 20 or even deeper. Wanting to make Atlanta's offense to
work hard for every yard it is more likely than not that Gostkowski will
not kick into the endzone but rather have his kick land inside the 5
yard line and force the returner to catch and return, confident in his
well prepared coverage team to stop the return inside the 25. During the
regular season only 40 of Gostkowski's 98 kickoffs resulted in
touchbacks. As the Super Bowl is a game of finality and field position
becomes even more important it is more likely than not the Pats will
force the Eagles into a kick return ither to start the game or following
the Patriots' first score.
Head to Head Prop # 4 -- First
Touchdown of Super Bowl 52 WIll Be Other Than A Passing Touchdown --
Priced at + 155 -- Although it is reasonable to think the first
touchdown of the game will be a passing touchdown, the type of TD may
depend more upon the down and distance situation than a pre-planned
strategy. Pass Interference in the end zone, for example, would put the
football on the 1 yard line which would allow for the possibility of a
running play on first or second down, or perhaps even a QB sneak. And,
of course, there is always the possibility of a defensive or special
teams touchdown being the first TD of the game. At odds of 3-2 or better
this appears to be a solid prop worth backing.
Head to Head
Prop # 5 -- Will the Patriots Convert a Fourth Down -- YES is priced at +
105 -- There could well be one or more times during the game that the
situation calls for a fourth down attempt rather than attempting a long
field goal or punting the football. This could occur at any point during
the game whether the Patriots are in the lead or, as is generally the
more likely case, playing from behind, expecially in the late stages of
the game. I evaluate this prop as effectively a 50/50 proposition
because the Super Bowl is played differently from regular season games
and even earlier Playoff games. Thus, at better than Even Money this
prop is worthy of consideraion.
Head to Head Prop # 6 -- Nick
Foles to Throw TD Pass Before Tom Brady -- Priced at + 135 -- New
England has a history of slow starts in the Super Bowls in the
Brady/Belichick era and have not scored any points in the first quarter
in any of their 7 previous Super Bowls. Philadelphia is expected to play
aggressively early in the game as they seek to show they are not
intimidated by the big stage. Foles is approaching mid season form after
being a backup for most of the season prior to starter Carson Wentz
being injured. New England's tendency to be patient and perform better
in the second half of Super Bowls suggests getting better than 5-4 on
Foles connecting for a TD pass earlier than does Brady is an attrative
prop.
Head to Head Prop # 7 -- Team With Fewer
Net Total Yards Will Win Game -- Priced at + 170 -- Simply put, this
prop says that the team that gains the most net total yards will not win
the game. This has been true in 5 of the last 8 Super Bowls. And it
generally makes sense in that the trailing team must often resort to the
passing game in an effort to come from behind. This has happened in 5
of this season's 10 Playoff games