1-star (728) BAYLOR -4.5 over Kansas St. 9:00pm ET. Kansas St has covered 4 straight games and have had back-to-back wins over ranked teams making them a little overpriced in the market place. We cashed with the Wildcats over the weekend in their 5-point win over TCU (laying -2.5). However, we weren't that impressed as despite the fact Kansas St shot 53% from the field, we had to sweat the game out in the final seconds (3 made Kansas St free throws closed the scoring). On the other side, we catch some value with Baylor who was outscored 9-0 down the stretch in their 3-point loss at Kansas (still covered easily). The Bears are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games but have covered 4 of their last 5 games. The Bears have the much better defense (No. 21 vs No. 88) and have played the tougher schedule (No. 43 vs No. 94).
Lean: (724) TEXAS -7 over Iowa St. 7:00pm ET. Both teams played on Saturday and the disparate results give us some value here. Texas was destroyed by 35 points at West Virginia while Iowa St upset a Top 10 Texas Tech team by 18 points (covered by 25.5). Prior to those games, the Horns had actually covered 3 straight while Iowa St was 1-5 SU. The Longhorns have the much superior defense (No. 7 vs No. 132) and have played the tougher schedule (No. 3 vs No. 55). The reason it's not a star-rated play is because it's tough laying a lot of points with a Texas offense that only ranks No. 142.