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2018-01-21T23:40:00.000Z 2018-01-21T23:40:00.000Z - NFL

313 Minnesota Vikings
vs.
314 Philadelphia Eagles

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/21/2018

NFL Sides

Eagles

38-7

+3½-120

2

W

200

Analysis
I MAY add a play on this game, check back later today, 1 hour prior to kickoff!

ADD VERY STRONG LEAN 1st half UNDER 19, just missing being a 1 star play!

PROPS I bet (Strong Leans)

1.  Final Score ODD -125 (Coast Properties still has this line)

I expect a very close game, making "odd" more likely (20-17, 17-14, 20-13, etc)

2.  Last  Score of 1st half to be a FG -135

Fgs OVER 3.5 makes sense as well, but I prefer THIS option, MUCH more likely IMO the 1st half ends with a "3" than a "7".

3.  1st Quarter UNDER 7.5 -155

I expect these teams to start VERY Conservatively.........in a grind it out ball control game.......LEAN Game UNDER also  

4.  Ajayi Rush yards UNDER 58.5-130

5.  Thielen Pass Yards UNDER 70 (I think this one is really good even at 66)


The Early line on this game last week was 4 to 4.5.  However, we have some key data that puts me on the Eagles.

Foles looked shaky to start the game last week.  In fact, the entire Eagles team looked shaky, fumbling 3 times early in the game.  However, I liked the way Foles rounded into form, and looked like the same solid QB he was vs. the Giants.

Meanwhile, the Vikings had a 17-0 lead in the 3rd quarter and were driving, and just imploded.   The D stopped being dominant, and the Offense started making huge mistakes.  

In reviewing the Vikings 2017 Season, they were MUCH better at home than on the Road.  They were 5-2 SU, (1 "rd" game was @London vs. Clev), and only won 1 game ALL YEAR on the true road by more than 1 score differential.   THAT game was the 16-0 win @GB where Hundley was awful, and GB had just had their playoff dreams crushed. 

I have Min rated at a "6" and Philly at a "2"  That makes THIS line 4 on a neutral, and NO WAY can we justify 3.5 AT PHILLY, especially considering how much better Minny has been at home.

I am not confident the Vikings can even win, much less cover -3.5!!
Pick Creation Time:
01/16/2018 10:20 AM
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