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Andy Iskoe

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(At current odds)

2018-01-21T20:05:00.000Z 2018-01-21T20:05:00.000Z - NFL

311 Jacksonville Jaguars
vs.
312 New England Patriots

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/21/2018

NFL Totals

UN JAC/NE

24-20

46

2

W

200

Analysis
Even before the injury to Tom Brady's thumb this game handicaps as intriguing matchup that features Jacksonville’s elite defense being challenged by New England’s elite offense.  The Patriots have a huge edge in experience which is reflected in the pointspread that might reach double digits by kick off.  Since 1990 favorites of more than 7 points but less than or equal to 10 points are just 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS which is surprising given that lines in this range suggest the favored team is clearly the better team but not a dominant one.  The Jaguars bring some solid qualities into this game including a running game that led the NFL in yards per game, a defense that led the league in fewest passing yards allowed per game.  The Jags also have a key executive in Tom Coughlin who oversees football operations.  Coughlin knows something about matching wits with Patriots coach Bill Belichick and designing defensive schemes to attack and frustrate QB Tom Brady.  Coughlin was the coach of the team that knocked off the unbeaten 18-0 Patriots in 2007.  And he did it again in their Super Bowl rematch in 2011.  The scores of those games were 17-14 and 21-17.  The Giants held the Pats to 23 points below their 2007 season average in that first win and to 15 points below their 2011 average in the second win.  Perhaps, just perhaps, Coughlin will be able to share some of his wisdom with Jags coach Doug Marrone.  The Patriots defensive statistics are very misleading.  The goal in football is to prevent points, not yards.  The phrase “bend but not break’ can be aptly applied to New England’s defense.  The Pats ranked number 29 in allowing 366 total yards per game.  But the Pats also ranked number 5 in allowing just 18.5 points per game.  And looking deeper into their stats the Pats allowed 418 yards per game over their first 8 game but just 315 yards per game over their final 8.  That’s an astonishing improvement of 103 yards per game which also translated to an equally astonishing improvement of 1.6 yards per play!  While it is tempting to make a strong case for Jacksonville their often undisciplined play and having to face the experienced duo of Brady and Belichick appears too daunting a task.  There was a stretch from 2007 through 2011 in which 9 of 10 Conference Championship games were decided by single digits.  In the 5 seasons and 10 games since 6 have been decided by double digits including 3 by more than 3 touchdowns.  And New England has two of them, their 45-7 win over the Colts in 2014 and their 36-17 win over Pittsburgh last season.  Since Division realignment in 2002 the points have come into play in just 4 of 30 Conference Championship games with underdogs winning only 8 of the 30 games.  The key for Jacksonville will be to do in New England what they did in Pittsburgh – get off to an early lead and maintain it.  The Steelers may have been overconfident, contending that their regular season loss to the Jags was a fluke.  Jacksonville showed otherwise but Pittsburgh did rally after falling down 21-0 to make a game of it over the final three quarters.  It is questionable as to whether the Jags can get an early lead here and have success continually applying pressure on Brady.  New England is as well prepared as any team has ever been to take away an opponents’ strength and make you defeat them with their weakness.  It’s a tough task for the Jaguars who would need nearly a perfect game from QB Blake Bortles.  It’s time to hedge any futures play on the Jaguars as their season most likely comes to an end here.  They will put up a good fight but that difference in experience should be too much to overcome over the course of a full 60 minutes.  We might see some of their undisciplined play if they start to fall behind and the bad Bortles starts making mistakes.  It’s been a great season for the Jags who are positioned for success over the next few seasons.  If they were facing any team other than the Patriots and had more in the way of post season experience it would much easier to call for the upset.   While my preference is to back the Pats the status of Brady both prior to the game and his ability to play at his usual elite level causes me to look towards the Total.  New England's improved defense combined with Jacksonville's inexperience suggests the Jags will have trouble scoring and certainly would not be expected to approach the level of production reached last week at Pittsburgh.  Belichick takes away what the opponent does best and forces that foe to beat him with their weakness.  That means relying on Bortles to sustain drives.  A tough challenge.  Meanwhile the Jaguars defense should keep them in this game into the second half.  The Patriots will be content running the football and challenge the Jags' elite secondary when the situation calls for it.   In last season'a AFC Championship against the Steelers the Pats won 36-17, sending the game OVER the Total.  However, dating back to 2007, their prior 6 AFC Title games all stayed UNDER the Total including the 5 straight between 2011 and 2015.  Included in this stretch are 2 games against Baltimore, a team that, much like Jacksonville, relied much more on defense than offense.  Those two games produced 43 and 41 total points.  Another similar type matchup, in 2015 against the Peyton Manning led Broncos (when Manning was no longer at the top of his game and the Broncos won with defense, resulted in a 20-18 Denver win.  This game could follow a similar arc with my key number being 45 and at 45 or higher the UNDER is a solid play.
Pick Creation Time:
01/21/2018 9:12 AM
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