2017 NFL Record
84 – 59 @ 59% for +19.1
Units
*******************
Conference Championship Round:
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#2:
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
My model has this one at
-3 NE, and that’s before Tom Brady injured his hand in practice. Yes, I have these two teams being ‘even’ on a
neutral field. Last week in my Jags-pick
write-up I mentioned that my model had PIT -1 in last week’s game, not the -7
that the bookmakers put out there. So of
course I’m not surprised to see it favoring NE by such a small margin. Clearly, I once again believe there’s a ton
of value on the Jags. I know people will
point out that the Pats will shred a defense that gave up 42 points to Pittsburgh. But we have to be careful here. Remember, two TD’s last week came on 4th
down plays, both deep passes that had a low-probability of success. Another one was a 20-yard pass to Bell in the
end-zone in perfect coverage, that somehow was secured by an elite player. And a final TD to Schuster was with 1-second
on the clock, on a driver that started with Steelers being down by 10 in the
final minute of the game. My point here
is that Steelers scored a number of points in extremely improbable ways and
still lost the game at home. In any
case, I expect a very close game in New England. I don’t need to tell you that Jacksonville is
built to beat the Pats – superior pass-rush, fast linebackers, elite secondary,
and a powerful run-game. And even though
Bortles isn’t anything special, his running ability is a weapon. I felt last week that Mariota and Henry would
be able to run the ball effectively against the Pats, thus keeping NE offense
off the field. Well, we found out after
the game that Mariota was injured, which pretty much sealed Tennessee’s fate
from the get-go. This week, I do expect
the Jags to control the game via the run-game.
Pats rank 32nd in defending the run, and I think that could
come back to bite them this week.
Remember those two upset Super Bowl wins by the Giants against New
England? They did it with elite pass-rush
and an effective run-game….and a little bit of ‘magic’ from a mediocre QB
talent like Eli Manning. Well, history
tends to repeat itself, doesn’t it?
Good Luck