Rating: 4 units - Regular Play
Pick: Under 214.5 (Play up to 213)

The Pelicans have been inconsistent all season and they're coming from a win at NY against the Knicks in very special conditions, as they were down by 14 points after three quarters and only a huge choke from the Knicks allowed them to comeback and win the game. However, the Pelicans only managed to have 19 assists while having also 19 turnovers and shooting 9-32 3pts, which is never a good recipe to be competitive. Today against a super rested Celtics, the Pelicans' lack of depth on the backcourt and with Boston's great interior defense, I believe this will be too much for the Pelicans.

New Orleans depends too much on their two big men and Boston is #6 in the league on rim defense. Baynes' strength won't be an easy matchup for Cousins, in a game where Baynes will probably play longer than usual because of the matchup. Boston had a similar matchup against Minnesota a few weeks ago, where they only allowed the Wolves to score 84 points and in that game, Baynes played 27 minutes, when his season average is around 19 minutes. Boston has also an elite transition defense, an area that the Pelicans like to explore on offense, but with a well defended frontcourt and with a limited transition game, I believe New Orleans' offense will struggle tonight.

On the other hand, the Pelicans' defense has been pretty good against the pick n roll ball handler plays, but they are struggling on defending 3pts shooting. Also their lack of size at the SF/SG positions will be well explored by both Tatum and Brown, while Boston should also have a bench edge in here. With edges on both offense and defense, I believe Boston will pick up a comfortable win tonight, while this totals line is assuming a good offensive display by both teams, something that I don't expect. I'll be taking both the Celtics and the Under tonight.