Sunday, Jan. 14th
4:40pm ET / 1:40pm PT
#307-308
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
We are posting this Best Bet as early in the week as possible, as the OU line has already gone UP by 2-3 full points since the openers last Sunday Night. We got our play in at the line of 44.5. As we type this on Wednesday afternoon, the line for this SAINTS / VIKINGS game has risen to 46 to 46.5. There’s still plenty of value left. But again, you want to get your action in as soon as possible. As long as you can cash a WINNER just in case this game finishes right on one of the ‘key numbers’ of 47 or 48 points. With all due respect to the Minnesota defense, our database models suggest a final score of: VIKINGS 31 - SAINTS 27. This Minnesota / New Orleans SERIES has gone 10-3-1 O/U in the last 14 meetings. And that includes a PERFECT 6-0-1 O/U for the seven games that were played IN Minnesota. One of those games was the opening weekend Monday Night double-header in this 2017 season. The Saints’ offense was not in mid-season form as they scored only 19 points on 344 total yards. They couldn’t convert numerous red zone trips into TD’s in that game. In fact they had only ONE touchdown to go with FOUR field goals. From a ‘law-of-averages’ standpoint, they should be able to get multiple TD’s in the rematch. What IS revealing is that New Orleans allowed the mysterious Vikings to score 29 points on 470 total offensive yards. That game did INDEED end up going Over the Total. The SAINTS have gone 8-1 O/U in the last three years in ALL road game in which the OU line is 50 or LESS points And in the controlled environment of a DOME, a high-scoring shootout is indeed a likely possibility. More on Dome ‘OVERS’ below…
In the DIVISION Round of the NFL post-season:
In the last 7 years, DIVISION ROUND games in which the OU line is in the range of > 41 and > 52 points (SAINTS @ VIKINGS) have gone 15-3 O/U. That includes a PERFECT 7-0 O/U when the pointspread in the game is 7 or less points,
Yes, Minnesota held Green Bay to 10 points in their last regular season game…
9-1 O/U last 7 years: All PLAYOFF teams WITH REST after allowing 10 or LESS points in their last game (VIKINGS).
In ALL Playoff games:
Yes, we’re aware that Minnesota has allowed 10 points, ZERO points, and 7 points in their last three games…
13-2 O/U ALL-TIME in our database: All PLAYOFF teams who allowed 10 or less points in EACH of their last three games (VIKINGS). These teams have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when favored by > 3 points (VIKINGS are currently -4).
In Minnesota’s last game, the OU Line was a LOW 38 points…
7-1 O/U last 9 years: All PLAYOFF teams with an OU line of 45 or MORE points after a game in which their OU line was LESS than (<) 40 points (VIKINGS)t.
In their home win last week, the SAINTS scored 31 points against division rival Carolina. What was also revealing is that fact that BOTH teams had more than 400 yards of total offense in that one…
14-2 O/U last 3 years / 9-1 O/U LAST year: All PLAYOFF teams who scored 31 or more points in their last game (SAINTS), when the OU line is > 44 points.
That win in the Big Easy for the Saints last Sunday went OVER the Total, but New Orleans failed to ‘get the cash’ (ATS loss)…
9-1-1 O/U since 1994: All PLAYOFF teams off a SU Playoff win BUT an ATS loss, in a game that also went ‘Over the Total’ (SAINTS) when the OU line is in the range of > 43 and < 52 points.
New Orleans’s GREAT rushing offense (#6 on the season with 124 yards per game on the ground) was held in check by the Panthers. They had only 41 yards rushing on 22 carries (only 1.86 yards per rush). What excites us OVER bettors is that future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees threw for a whopping 376 yards. It was his HIGHEST passing total of the season, meaning it’s a good time to rely on him to once again AIR it out. And in regards to New Orleans’ poor rushing numbers last week:
9-1-1 O/U since 2003: All PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff WIN in which they RUSHED for LESS than (<) 65 yards (SAINTS).
The pointspread in this game is not too low… or not too high (New Orleans -4). If the previous few seasons are any indication, we should get an ‘Over-EASY’ based on that pointspread…
In the last two years, ALL PLAYOFF games have gone 8-1 O/U when the HOME team is favored by > 3 points BUT less than 7 points (SAINTS).
Cementing our call on a high-scoring outcome is a database query based on the Day of the Week…
NFL Playoff games on a SUNDAY have gone a PERFECT 8-0 O/U in the last three seasons in All-NFC ONLY games (SAINTS @ VIKINGS) when the OU line is 41 or more points. ALL EIGHT of these games had 50 or more points scored in ‘em… and the average combined point total was 57.2.
We’ll finish it off with a query based in NFL Playoff games played INDOORS…
NFL Playoff DOME GAMES have gone 26-8-1 O/U since the 2003 season. That includes 10-2 O/U in the last 10 years when the HOST is favored by -4 or more points.