Analysis
These teams played as part of the opening Monday night doubleheader with
Minnesota winning 29-19 as 3 point home favorites. The Vikings had Sam
Bradford at QB and rookie RB Dalvin Cook before both were injured
within the next few weeks. New Orleans also was relying on Mark Ingram
and Adrian Peterson at running back and we know what happened when
Peterson was released and his replacement, likely rookie of the year
Alvin Kamara, was inserted as a starter. The Vikes were 7-1 SU, 6-1-1
ATS at home this season but that win over the Saints and their
mid-season win over the Rams were their only home wins over a team that
made the Playoffs. Even so, all 7 home wins were by 8 points or more
with 6 by double digits. The Saints were just 4-4 SU away from home,
including a 20-0 win over Miami in England but did lose their final 3
road games at Atlanta, the Rams and Tampa Bay with the losses by 3, 6
and 7 points, going 0-3 ATS in them. Both teams are in the top ten in
running the football, separated by just 2 yards per game (122 vs 124).
Despite their improvement defensively, the Saints still rank number 21
in defensive yards per play (5.4). Minnesota ranks number 2 at 4.6
ypg. Both teams excelled at avoiding turnovers with the Vikes losing
.88 per game (number 3) and the Saints 1.00 per game (number 10). This
suggests a cleanly played game. This is another classic matchup of
offense versus defense. The Saints rank number 2 in total offense (393
ypg) while the Vikes are number 1 in total defense (276 ypg). The
Saints are number 4 in scoring offense (28.4 ppg) and the Vikes number 1
in scoring defense (15.8 ppg). New Orleans has a huge edge at QB with
Drew Brees a future Hall of Famer with a Super Bowl win to his credit.
Minnesota’s Case Keenum took over when starter Sam Bradford was injured
and has quarterbacked his way into the MVP conversation. New Orleans
will not be at a disadvantage playing in a domed stadium and we should
get an honest effort from both teams with weather not a factor. The
statistical gap in the passing offenses is not as great as generally
perceived. The Saints average 11.21 yards per pass completion, the
Vikings 11.01. But the defensive gap is huge with the Saints allowing
11.81 yards per completion, the Vikings just 10.28. The Vikes have won
11 of its last 12 games but only 2 of those wins were over Playoff teams
(Atlanta and the Rams) and the lone loss was at Carolina, a team the
Saints defeated 3 times this season. Still, the better defense
complemented by a solid running game and capable QB play and playing at
home makes the more compelling case for backing the underdog. And there
are some concerns about New Orleans’ defensive breakdowns last week
while protecting what appeared to be a comfortable lead prior to making
those big plays against Cam Newton on the Panthers final potential game
winning drive. And how good of a coach is Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer? In
2014 he took over a team that was 5-10-1 the previous season and the
Vikes improved to 7-9 9n his first season after coming over from
Cincinnati as the Bengals’ defensive coordinator. In the three seasons
since, including the Playoffs, the Vikings have gone 11-6, 8-8 and 13-3
this season. That’s a record of 39-26 in four seasons and the 8-8
record in 2016 resulted from the season ending injury to QB Teddy
Bridgewater in training camp that had the Vikes scrambling to find a
capable replacement, ultimately acquiring Sam Bradford from Philadelphia
who started 15 games. The Vikes faded after a 5-0 start, losing 8 of
their final 11 in a season that was also marked by the resignation of
offensive coordinator Norv Turner in mid season. But perhaps more
importantly for our purposes, look at the Vikings’ ATS record under
Zimmer – 44-20-1. That’s 68.8% and on a season by season basis the ATS
results, beginning in 2014, have been 10-6, 14-3, 9-7 and this season’s
11-4-1. Those results are a solid indication of being well prepared for
games and/or the ability to make in game adjustments. And in home
games since taking over in 2014, Zimmer and the Vikes are 23-10 SU and
an even more impressive 24-8-1 ATS. 16 of the 23 SU wins have been by
more than 7 points with 15 of them by double digits.