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Andy Iskoe

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2018-01-14T18:05:00.000Z 2018-01-14T18:05:00.000Z - NFL

305 Jacksonville Jaguars
vs.
306 Pittsburgh Steelers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/14/2018

NFL Totals

UN JAC/PIT

42-45

41

3

L

-330

Analysis
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger had perhaps the worst game of his career when the Steelers hosted the Jags in Week 5, losing 30-9 and tossing 5 interceptions, 2 of which were returned for touchdowns.  But it is important to recall that the Jags led 7-6 at the half and the Steelers took a 9-7 lead midway through the third quarter before thing collapsed for the Steelers.  Pittsburgh actually outgained the Jaguars in total yards 371-313 but on a yards per play basis the Jaguars had a major edge of more than a yards per play, 5.9-4.8.  Even though the game was close in the middle of the third quarter the Steelers allowed a season high 231 rushing yards.  In fact, the Steelers held 9 of their first 11 foes to 91 or fewer rushing yards, allowing Chicago to run for 220 yards in a Week 3 road loss.  But over their final 5 games the Steelers allowed 3 foes to rush for between 130 and 176 yards.  This is a classic matchup of Jacksonville’s elite defense and Pittsburgh’s elite offense.  The game might well be decided by how the pedestrian Jaguars offense fares against a somewhat vulnerable Steelers defense over the final part of the season.  Despite the presence of RB Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh topped 140 rushing yards in just 3 games and were held to under 100 yards in 8 games.  Their passing game flourished with WR Antonio Brown one of the top two or three players at his position.  Both teams fell short of expectations down the stretch.  Jacksonville is on a current 0-3 ATS run while the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games, including 1-4 ATS in their 5 wins in this stretch.  None of those 5 wins was over a team that made the Playoffs.  The lone loss was that dramatic come from ahead home loss to the Patriots in Week 15.  If the majority of your handicapping is based on statistics you would likely make a strong case for the Jags to at least cover this game if not win outright.  But handicapping is both a science and an art.  The ‘science’ is in the analysis of statistics.  The ‘art’ comes in the interpretation of the stats and digging deeper into them.  For example, the significant statistical edge enjoyed by the Steelers in their first meeting despite the 30-9 loss and how that game unfolded as noted above.  Or in the strong motivation for revenge held by the higher seed and, arguably, the more talented team.  And certainly the undeniable edge in experience enjoyed by the Steelers.  Jacksonville has been a chic pick to have a breakout season for the past several seasons and finally achieved that success this season, going 10-6 in the regular season and winning a home Playoff game.  That’s a nice foundation to build upon and the Jags are positioned to contend over the next several seasons.  But the future may be now for the Steelers as the career of Big Ben starts to wind down.  The Steelers have 5 double digit wins this season including a pair at home over Playoff teams Minnesota (by 17) and Tennessee (by 23).  A year from now this might be a play on the up and coming, defensively tenacious Jags.  The preference is to look UNDER the Total in a game in which those who handicap mostly by stats will be on the Jags and those that handicap based on fundamentals will be on the Steelers.  Remember, the first meeting was clearly played in an UNDER mode.  The Total in that game was 41 1/2 and even with Big Ben's 5 interceptions and the INT returns by the Jags for touchdowns the game still stayed UNDER with the Jags winning 30-9
Pick Creation Time:
01/14/2018 8:41 AM
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