Philadelphia Eagles +3

My model has this one at -7.7 PHI.  Of course that’s assuming that Wentz is the QB.  Even if we adjust the typical “7-points” when a stud QB goes down, Philly should still be a favorite of around -1 points.  Well, we’re catching a FG with them at home, providing at least 4 points of pure value.  Atlanta looked great the last two weeks.  They had to play “all out” in week 17 at home against the Panthers.  Then they traveled to the West Coast to take on the Rams, and once again gave a very strong effort.  Now playing on the East Coast, and instead of facing “lackadaisical” LA fans, they’ll be going into a “real” football stadium with real fans, to take on Philly, a team that had 2 weeks to rest and prepare.  Expecting the Falcons to maintain the same level of effort as they have the last couple of weeks is unrealistic.  Of course Foles is a major wild-card, and the biggest reason why this line is where it is.  But let’s remember that the public tends to have major recency-bias and the bookmakers have to adjust the lines for that.  Foles played horrible in his last start, but he should be better with more times to practice.  Philly is disrespected with this number (first time a #1 seed is a home underdog to a #6 seed in the post-season), and I expect their players to play really hard in this one.