Tennessee Titans +13

More than 70% of all the tickets are on the Patriots, yet the line dropped from -13.5 to -13 now.  My model has NE -8.7 here, so there’s a lot of value on the Titans.  A big factor is New England’s 32^nd ranked run-D.  Both Henry and Mariota could have a big day running the ball.  And if that’s the case, they could control the clock and keep this NE offense off the field.  In addition, Tennessee has a 7^th ranked run-defense themselves.  That’s critical, because older QB’s tend to lose arm-strength as the season goes on and especially in the post-season.  If the Patriots can’t run the ball as effectively as they’re used to this season, that could play in the Titans’ favor.  Yes, Brady is a GOAT, but I’d rather have him chuck it 40+ times in this game than the Pats methodically dominate the game via the run.  I think the Titans use their run-offense to stay on the field and sustain runs, while their run-D forces the Pats to be more one-dimensional than they’d like.  Regardless, the Titans have been keeping games close in an ugly fashion this year, and I believe this one will stay within the number as well.