10:35pm ET / 7:35pm PT
#817-818
HOUSTON ROCKETS @ PHOENIX SUNS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
We’re getting right back ON the horse, when it comes to Houston ‘OVERS’. After cashing an easy OVER ticket on Wednesday in the Rockets / Trailblazers game… we’ll hit it AGAIN on Friday. Despite the HIGHEST O/U Line on the entire nine-game slate. We’ve been no stranger to Phoenix OVERS either, after winning last Wednesday night (Jan. 3rd) in their high-scoring road game against the Denver Nuggets. Sharp OU bettors have to LOVE the fact that Houston just played at a quick pace in their Wednesday win, and Phoenix played at a 119.8 points per 100 possessions pace in their surprising upset win over the Ok City Thunder last Sunday. Let’s also not forget that we played the OVER in the LAST game between these two teams. That was back on November 16th. In that game (also played IN Phoenix), the OU Line was 230 points. And the final score was Houston 142 - Phoenix 116. The 258 combined points meant that the OVER cashed by +28 points, despite the high OU line. In fact, this Suns / Rockets SERIES has gone 10-1 O/U in the last 11 meetings… and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last seven since the start of the 2015 / 2016 season. Average OU Line: 225.2… Average combined points: 239.4… Average OU margin: +14.2 points per game.
With Phoenix one of the WORST teams in the league (16-26 SU), our database reveals that the Rockets’ BEST ‘Over’ results have been against BAD teams…
HOUSTON has gone 37-18-2 O/U in the last two + seasons versus all .400 or WORSE opponents (like the SUNS). That includes an OVER-whelming 17-2 O/U when the PU line is GREATER than (>) 224 points. Since December of LAST season, these Rocket games have gone a PERFECT 12-0 O/U… with an average of 249.2 combined points per game!
With Houston one of the BEST teams in the league (29-11 SU), our database reveals that the Suns’ BEST ‘Over’ results have been against GREAT teams…
PHOENIX has gone 36-16-2 O/U (8-2-1 O/U this season) in the last 2 + seasons versus all .600 or BETTER opponents (like the ROCKETS). That includes 9-1 O/U as conference home UNDERDOGS of +10 or less points.
With the Suns off an extremely RARE double-digit win over the Thunder in their last game, we also note that:
PHOENIX has gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last two seasons when playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT win in their last game…
One of the most eye-opening aspects of this game is the HIGH Over / Under line… with the road team favored…
Since March of last season, NBA games have gone 16-3 O/U when the OU line is a HIGH 225 or more points… and the ROAD team is favored by > 3 points (HOUSTON)>
For me, the second most unique aspect of this game is the EXTREME rest situation. Houston comes in on inly ONE day of rest after their 21-112 win on Wednesday. But Phoenix’s last game was way back on Sunday (4 full days of rest)… 7-0 O/U last 8 seasons: All NBA home teams (SUNS) in a ‘4+/1’ REST situation ( 4 or MORE days of rest versus 1 day of rest).
The Suns just pulled off one of the shockers of the season. They were big home dogs of +8 against the Thunder last Sunday, and won OUTRIGHT by 14 points… 7-1 O/U last 5 years: All non-division home teams of a DOUBLE-DIGIT home win in which they were an underdog of + 8 or more (SUNS).
So that was an ATS win of +22 points for Phoenix in their last game (+8 underdog won outright by 14 points)… Since December, NBA underdogs of +3 > points off an ATS win of 22 > points (SUNS) have gone e a PERFECT 6-0 O/U.
On the flip side, the hot Houston offense has STILL scored 121 and 116 points despite the injury to James Harden… 8-1-1 O/U since December: All NBA non-division conference ROAD teams who scored 115 > points in EACH of their last two games (ROCKETS).