Much of the analysis of the major strengths and few weaknesses for both teams were covered last week in my write ups of the Rose and Sugar Bowls.  Alabama was much more impressive in its win over Clemson than was Georgia in its double OT win over Oklahoma but the Bulldogs are to be commended for coming back twice, including overcoming their 31-17 halftime deficit.  It looked like a totally different team defensively in the second half in shutting down what had been a potent Oklahoma offense in the first half.  Alabama was defensively dominant all game in downing Clemson and did enough offensively against the Tigers’ highly rated defense.  Both of these teams rate highly in most of the key statistics and both are fairly close with neither team enjoying a significant edge across the board.  Both rank in the Top Ten in rushing offense, total defense, yards per play defense, scoring defense and turnover avoidance.  The stats on offense also are very close and while not Top Ten as much are more along the lines of Top 25.  These SEC foes last met in 2015 with ‘Bama winning 38-10 at Georgia and were in the rare role of being the underdog (+ 1 ½).  But that was when Georgia was coached by Mark Richt.  Kirby Smart, longtime defensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban took over as Georgia coach last season.  You will hear many times leading up to this game how former Saban assistants are 0-11 SU against him in the “teacher-pupil” matchup with the average score, ironically enough, in the 11 prior meetings, 38-10 with each win by at least 14 points!  Every game plays out differently and there can be no greater contrast than what we saw this past Monday with Georgia involved in a shootout and Alabama in a tight defensive struggle.  Both teams are capable of winning in either type of game.  Georgia’s offense steps way up in class in facing an Alabama defense that is much better than they one they faced in Oklahoma.  Alabama’s defense steps up but perhaps only slightly.  Statistically Georgia and Clemson are very similar on both sides of the football.  The gap between Alabama’s offense and that of Oklahoma is modest.  The gap between the defenses is huge.  These teams had 4 common opponents this season with Georgia facing Auburn twice.  They also each faced Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Tennessee.  Georgia was 4-1 both SU and ATS whereas ‘Bama was 3-1 SU but just 2-2 ATS.  Alabama did have the better stats including an average total yardage edge of +279 (510-231) vs +115 (396-281) for Georgia.  Alabama also had the better offensive and defensive yards per play stats.  The statistics make a case that the line of Alabama by 4 is warranted.  But what about any intangible edges.  Aside from the 0-11 record for former Saban assistants cited above there may be another edge that works in Alabama’s favor.  That edge is in having had the opportunity to see Georgia at its best and Georgia at its worst against the same opponent.  Late in the regular season Georgia lost at Auburn 40-17, being outgained 488-230 in total yards and was -3.1 in yards per play differential.  In their rematch in the SEC Title game adjustments were made by both teams and Georgia won the SEC Title game 28-7, outgaining Auburn 421-259 with a plus 2.6 yards per play differential.  Georgia can also break down film of Auburn’s 26-14 win over Alabama but has only that one meeting to view.  Auburn outgained Alabama 408-314 but had only a very slim +0.1 yards per play differential.  It’s hard to ignore those intangibles that favor Alabama and we can also throw in the edge in experience enjoyed by Alabama as well as their added motivation.  In defeating Clemson the Tide avenged their lone loss from last season.  By defeating Georgia they would reclaim the National Title denied them last season by that loss to Clemson with a win giving Alabama their second National Title in 3 seasons.  There are many reasons to like Georgia in this game.  But there are more reasons to like Alabama.  And while a Georgia upset win is not that hard to envision the likelihood of it occurring against this specific foe given the long term track record of Alabama and Saban is not that great.  The short week of preparation may also work in favor of Alabama which not only has a shorter distance to travel in returning home but was not as taxed physically and emotionally in their Sugar Bowl win as was Georgia in its win in the Rose Bowl.  The forecast is for Alabama to win yet another National Championship with a hard fought, well earned win

01/07/2018 11:13 PM