This is a TEASER play involving both teams on Sunday:
Teaser-6.5
points:
Jaguars -2 / Saints -0.5
The biggest issue for the
Bills is that McCoy is hurt. Even if he
plays, he’s not going to be 100%, and against this Jags D, McCoy needs to be at
“200%” for the Bills to have a shot. My
model has the Jags at -10.2 in this matchup, and though it’s hard to trust
Bortles in any game, teasing this one below a FG provides tremendous value from
my perspective.
The Saints are 2-0 against
the Panthers this season, outscoring them 65 to 34. It wasn’t even close in either of the
previous two games, and I don’t see it being particularly close in this one
either. Yes, playing the same team three
times isn’t easy, but since 1990, the team that has won the first two matchups
has gone 11-5 (~70% win-rate) in the 3rd meeting, in the
playoffs. In the first meeting, the
Saints had a 6.4 to 4.9 YPP edge. In the
second, it was more of the same, with the Saints holding a 6.2 to 5.3 YPP
advantage. Panthers have one of the
worst #1 WR’s in the league (Funchess), a past-his-prime TE in Olsen, maybe one
of the worst #1 RB’s in the league in Stewart, and a young rookie in McCaffrey
who ranked 30th in efficiency as a runner this year (out of 47
qualified RB’s. He was better as a
receiver, ranking 21st in efficiency). Simply said, this team doesn’t have a lot of
weapons to challenge this Saints squad on the road. And I haven’t even talked about Newton’s
inaccuracy issues as a QB. Carolina has
to play a perfect game on both sides of the ball to have a chance, and I just
don’t see it.
Good Luck