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Pro Pick From
VegasButcher

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(At current odds)

2018-01-07T21:30:00.000Z 2018-01-07T21:30:00.000Z - NFL

107 Carolina Panthers
vs.
108 New Orleans Saints

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/07/2018

NFL Money Lines

Saints

31-26

-110

3

W

300

Analysis

This is a TEASER play involving both teams on Sunday:


Teaser-6.5 points:

Jaguars -2 / Saints -0.5

 

The biggest issue for the Bills is that McCoy is hurt.  Even if he plays, he’s not going to be 100%, and against this Jags D, McCoy needs to be at “200%” for the Bills to have a shot.  My model has the Jags at -10.2 in this matchup, and though it’s hard to trust Bortles in any game, teasing this one below a FG provides tremendous value from my perspective.

 

The Saints are 2-0 against the Panthers this season, outscoring them 65 to 34.  It wasn’t even close in either of the previous two games, and I don’t see it being particularly close in this one either.  Yes, playing the same team three times isn’t easy, but since 1990, the team that has won the first two matchups has gone 11-5 (~70% win-rate) in the 3rd meeting, in the playoffs.  In the first meeting, the Saints had a 6.4 to 4.9 YPP edge.  In the second, it was more of the same, with the Saints holding a 6.2 to 5.3 YPP advantage.  Panthers have one of the worst #1 WR’s in the league (Funchess), a past-his-prime TE in Olsen, maybe one of the worst #1 RB’s in the league in Stewart, and a young rookie in McCaffrey who ranked 30th in efficiency as a runner this year (out of 47 qualified RB’s.  He was better as a receiver, ranking 21st in efficiency).  Simply said, this team doesn’t have a lot of weapons to challenge this Saints squad on the road.  And I haven’t even talked about Newton’s inaccuracy issues as a QB.  Carolina has to play a perfect game on both sides of the ball to have a chance, and I just don’t see it.

 

Good Luck

Pick Creation Time:
01/06/2018 5:34 AM
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