2017 NFL Record
80 – 57 @ 58% for +17.3
Units
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Wild Card Weekend - Top Play for Saturday:
#1:
Under 48 ATL/LAR
While many expect a
shoot-out, I think we’ll see a lower-scoring game here. I don’t need to talk about the Rams’ 5th
ranked D, 3rd against the pass, and 4th at rushing the
QB. Under Phillips this defense became
elite this season. At the same time,
everyone knows that Atlanta’s offense regressed greatly with Shannahan’s
departure, as they’re nowhere close to the juggernaut they were a season
ago. Atlanta will be without Levitre,
their starting guard, and Alex Mack and Devonta Freeman have been dealing with
injuries this week. I don’t see a very
efficient Falcons offense in this one.
On the other side of the ball, we have an improving Atlanta D. They’ve gone from allowing 21.5 PPG in the
first 8 weeks of the season to only allowing 17.5 PPG in the final 8, with no
game allowing more than 23 in the last 6 weeks. The Rams were prolific offensively this
season, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. Trusting Goff in the playoffs won’t be easy,
and I don’t think the coaching staff will put too much on him in his first
playoff game. Expect LA to feed Gurley
early and often in this one as Atlanta ranks 25th at defending the
run. I actually expect both teams to
apply conservative approaches offensively, run the ball, and rely on their
defenses to keep the game close. One
final factor to consider is that Zuerlein is out on IR for the Rams, and
instead they have a rookie kicker out of Penn State, Sam Ficken. He already missed a 36-yard FG and PAT in his
2 games played, while only making 2 FG’s from within 30 yards. Those 50+ yard FG’s that Zuerlein was
automatic on, could turn into punts, and that could very well be the difference
in our favor. My model has this one at
45 total points (26-19 Rams), and I’ll grab the value in this one.
Good Luck