Both teams had very streaky seasons.  Kansas City started 5-0 but then dropped 6 of 7 before winning its final 4 to finish 10-6.  The Titans had smaller winning and losing streaks but were 8-4 entering the season’s final quarter and had the lead in the AFC South.  Then came a 3 game losing streak that ended this past Sunday when, needing to win to earn a Wild Card, Tennessee defeat their Division rival and Division champion Jacksonville 15-10 in a game that had no meaning for the Jags other than to try and erase memories of a week earlier when the Jags lost in San Francisco 44-33.  The Chiefs have an unusual ATS profile, covering in all of their wins and losing to the spread in every one of their losses.  The Titans were 9-7 SU but just 7-7-2 ATS and were 6-2-1 ATS in their 9 wins, 1-5-1 in their 7 losses.  The Chiefs, normally a solid defensive team, had problems on defense this season, allowing 5.6 yards per play (number 26).  But over their final 7 games they held 5 opponents to 16 points or less and for the season only 6 teams scored more than 20 points against them.  KC does not blow teams away.  They had 6 double digit wins but those ranges were between 10 to 17 points.  By the same token the Titans have been competitive in losses, with 4 of their 7 losses by 6 points or less and another by 10.  They did suffer a 43 point loss at Houston and a 23 point loss at Pittsburgh and were 3-5 SU on the road.  Both teams run the football well.  The Titans allow a half yard less per play than does KC.  Turnovers have been an issue for the Titans, losing 1.6 per game.  Avoiding them has been a plus for the Chiefs who ranked second in losing just 0.8 per game.  The numbers and experience favor the Chiefs who are in the Playoffs for a third straight season and for the fourth time in Andy Reid’s five seasons as coach.  Tennessee last made the Playoffs in 2008.  If the Titans can avoid mistakes they could pull the upset because of their running game and their defense.  Over their last 7 games only three times did they allow more than 20 points.  The Chiefs are the better team overall with steady QB play from Alex Smith versus the somewhat erratic play of his Tennessee counterpart, Marcus Mariota.  They should get the win but these are too many points for the workmanlike Chiefs to lay.

01/06/2018 10:10 AM