I'm not sure that the Ducks are that good this year. They already lost 3 games and they beat mostly bad teams. I can tell you that Portland St. will be the more motivated team tonight. Portland St. has been tough all year long and the two losses they have are against Duke (by 18) and Butler (by 2)....Oregon isn't close to Duke and they might be as good as Butler...Portland St has taken care fo the easy teams on the schedule and they've even pulled out a few wins most thought they would lose...They Beat Stanford a few games back and Utah St. They also went on the road and beat Portland who is a rival. This is a good road team overall winning every road game they've played.
Let's check some stats.
These favor Oregon
Assists +1
Rebs +2.5
FG% +15
Blocks +1
Fouls +2
The FG% would be my biggest concern, but the rest is very close, which tells me this is a game of which team will win certain battles. Portland St is good enough that they could win the rebounds, assists, blocks or fouls...They could lose them all or win them all, but I don't see them getting a landslide against them.
Portland St is very good at creating offense with the defense...They are one of the top teams in the nation with steals. They avg 10 steals a game..So if the Ducks come out lazy or sloppy, it's going to cost them points in the other direction....Portland St also has the better turnover stats..So this would be in our favor tonight...Portland St also wins the 2nd chance points area with a +3 in offensive rebounds.
Here is one of the areas that is a knock against Portland St and why I think this line is as high as it is...Free throws....Oregon is top 10 in the nation and Portland St is 250th in the nation...This area will show up tonight, but I feel the close nature in the stats and how hard the Vikings play even out the attempt game. Oregon will be chippy tonight trying to flex some muscle...That could get them in trouble here. Portland St gets to the line though much more than Oregon...Portland St is top 70...Oregon is top 160....So the Oregon losing the turnover battle and free throw attempts + Portland St winning the steals, I think the opportunities are there for the Vikings to challenge to actually win the free throw line tonight.
Portland St also wins 3pt %...Which is key for falling behind or just keeping pace...This game looks to be a high pace game and the Vikings actually look to be the better suited team right now for a high pace game.
Oregon also shoots a ton of 3's...They are top 50 in the nation with attempts, but they don't hit the bottom of the cup as much as they should...They are average and if the ball isn't going down, it afford the Vikings extra opportunities to keep this close.
Here is my big thing though to support Portland St....Turnovers forced..Not just steals, but many other things account for this stat...They are #2 in the nation creating over 22 turnovers a game. Oregon on the other hand ranks 203rd....That's a very big gap for a stat area that creates extra possessions.
So looking at everything on paper it looks to be a rather even game. I don't see anything that says blowout...I think Oregon might even lose tonight and be the shocker of the day. This is far too many points to lay to a team this close in the stats that will be motivated.
I see a this one 87-83 area.