Often times when we break down games we see basic numbers that come together to make a game look respectable. Then someone like me looks at a game and discovers the real truth...Well we need to uncover some of the numbers in this game that are not factored into this line.

So the raw numbers on ESPN has this game at 5 and 152....I mean cmon now...It doesn't get much more basic than that...Anyone could make a line for these types of games...Problem is the lines are usually incorrect with these games because the books just auto fire a number out for the public...Does it always work in our favor...Nope, but we have the %'s in our favor when we discover bad numbers to wager against.

The rebound margin is very far apart...San Fran gets a big nod in that area and the that's key for a team at home...EWU doesn't shoot all that well, so we should win this area by a good amount..Check these +/- in our favor.

Rebs + 8

Asst +2

FG% Even

Fouls Even

Turnovers Even

Steals +2

Blocks +1

PPG +5.5

Those numbers alone have us at a +18.5....That's a very good number for a team playing at home...EWU is now playing it's 3rd road game in a row and they are 1-4 on the season on the road...They got blasted in the last game against Seattle by almost 20pts...Now they have to take on a team that is statistically better once again.

Both teams are not very good good shooting the ball...They are actually about dead even in that area...We notice we are at home and our 3pt defense is ranked #41...That's very good...Eastern Washington on the other hand is ranked 274th...That's terrible and we should win the 3pt line for sure tonight being we are at home and this is a glaring difference.

Free Throw line is dead even, only a 1% difference in favor of Eastern Washington...They are again in a new gym and they have a knack for turnovers and fouls..We rule the steals and blocks are, so I would expect us at home to get more free throws tonight..We should win this are, but not by a wide margin.

We win the forced turnovers, that's different from turnovers..But we win that area by a slim margin, only by about 1%..Home crowd though can make that number swing an extra % or two in our favor.

This area I talk about when it's a big gap...Offensive rebounds..We love to have the team that attacks the glass on offense...Well San Fran does that and they rank 49th in the nation...EWU ranks 298th...Guys I say this all the time, when you have a team in the 300's in teh nation in a particular area, be careful messing with that team...This is a wide gap margin..We will crush the boards and it will lead to extra shots at the basket..I guarantee you we get 6 possessions here that lead to extra points.

So in conclusion this line is wrong...The books are putting up a bad number and we are here to get paid off on this number...The total makes sense to me, but not the line..I could see this game being a 81-61 type game for a wide margin...A close margin would be 77-65.

We also have a bit of revenge for the past few seasons..San Fran comes ready tonight to lay a beatdown.

Either way, I see a double digit winner tonight for the Dons.