The play was on ATL PLUS 1. PASS on Atl -2.5.
Props I bet (Strong Lean):
Shortest TD UN 1.5 -130 (this goes contrary to my UNDER 52, but in some way hedges it and we can win both bets). If we get 6 TDs, we are a very solid favorite to win this bet, AND with two QBs who will be throwing into the endzone, decent shot at PI in the endzone.
ATl to get more 1st downs -115. Atl has a history of winning the stats but not doing quite as well on the scoreboard. If you missed ATl +1 or pk, I would certainly play this prop!
Great spot here for the ATL on a Thursday.
Min and the Saints are pretty comparable teams. Last week Atl was laying -2.5/-3 vs. Min.
NOW they are GETTING +1.
Further, they are in a great spot here, as teams that play at home and lose, are 12-3 ATS when Hosting a Thursday game (the trend makes sense, you are 100% focused on a short week, you have the time edge already being home, AND line value from the loss the prior week).
The Saints are awesome at home, but they have some injuries on Offense, and just played two big games vs. Rams and Caro. The Caro win moved them to 2-0 in Division vs. Caro, all this 9-3 team needs is 1 win out of 2 games vs. Atl.
Atl at 7-5 is desperate, but they also know 4 wins and they win the Division, AND they are the NFC champs from last year, AND have the best stats in the league.
We fire on ATL and the UNDER.
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NOTE: At Atl -2.5 I pass on the game............