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sleepyj

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(At current odds)

2017-12-07T04:00:00.000Z 2017-12-07T04:00:00.000Z - College Basketball

599 Montana Grizzlies
vs.
600 UCLA Bruins

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

12/06/2017

CBB Totals

OV MONTA/UCL

-1--1

153

3

...

...

Analysis
I'm on the over in this one tonight and for a bunch of reasons.

First thing we notice is that UCLA scored a ton of points...Right now they avg 86.8ppg and Montana avg 72.5ppg....That's 159ppg...On the defensive side of the ball they give up 70.6 and 75.1....That's 146ppg....So the avg should be right here at 153...Well anyone can take raw numbers and come up with this total.

Let's look at what's not factored into this line...We always take assists and how important they are having them on both sides..Well we licked out here with both teams assisting the basketball rather well...UCLA avgs 16 a game and Montana 13....That's a good number for us at 29.

Another key factor is steals, we love to see this number be in the double digits combined..We get a raw number of 14.9...So we get 15 a game combined..That's a big factor for me here because these teams combine for about 27 turnovers a game..We always want to be above 20 turnovers combined with an over...Well we get that and from the steals we see, it tells me the pace with just transition will be rather high just with that...That's not factoring in the pace in which UCLA plays..Being at home here for the Bruins\, I expect it to be high anyway..We want that pace to stay consistent and with the turnovers and steals, it looks like that will be the case.

Another area we look at is blocks.....Are these teams making it difficult for the other team to score on the inside...We like to see a number under 8 combined...Let's check....well it's about 9 blocks per game, but we can't get discouraged at that...It's not in the double digits, so we kind of even out or give a tick to the negative with that..

Fouls are key for us as we love to be on the free throw line...We both teams combined account for 40 fouls a game...Now lets check and see how many times they actually get to the line...Very good !!....Montana is in the top 115 and UCLA is in the top 25...This is going to be a great spot for us...I was also curious of the blowout games in which fouls are less likely to be called especially at the end of the game...Well looking at the numbers it looks good for us tonight to get a bunch of trips to the line...Now do we have a the shooters to make this really count..Let's check....Yikes, not that good !!....Both teams are in that 66% range and that's not a great number for either team..UCLA at home should be able to increase that I would assume, but Montana needs to make the free throws..No real way of knowing that before hand...Still I think we get a good number of free throws here, but we fall short just with the %'s alone..Let's hope they sink them all tonight.

The 3pt line could be key for us tonight as well...Nothing really sticks out in this area, but my gut feeling says because this line is rather big, that we see enough 3balls going up to score or to move the pace back in the other direction quickly...The %'s are less than I'd like to see, but both teams shoot a healthy amount..We gotta hope they sink a fair amount..I think they will actually.

FG% on both sides is in our favor...These teams allow almost 50% on defense and they score about 51% on offense, that a good number for healthy steady scoring.

Overall the numbers that I see says it'll be closer than I thought...I was actually thinking around 167 area....The foul line is key with makes and so is the 3ball...We also didn't get the best numbers with blocks, but we made up a ton with pace, assists, steals and turnovers...Those areas are key for a high paced game and points on the run..The rest are slower numbers for a slower paced game..So I'm not really all that concerned, but hafta be cautious when playing overs etc with certain teams..I don't think we have them here tonight.

I see a high paced game filled with back and forth and loaded with steals and easy baskets..Foul line is a concern and I hope they knock down the 3's...I got this in the 161-162 area...Perhaps a 89-73 type game
Pick Creation Time:
12/06/2017 8:29 AM
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