#2: Minnesota
Vikings -3
The Vikings were -3
home favorites in the first meeting between these two teams, and they’re -3
road favorites in the rematch on the road.
Bookmakers’ mistake?
Unlikely. Minnesota outplayed the
Lions in that first game. They outgained
them 5.2 YPP (Yards Per Play) to 3.7 YPP (miniscule!), which is over 40% variance
in efficiency. The reason they lost was
going 0 for 3 on their own fumble recoveries, while Detroit went 1 for 1 when
they put the ball on the ground.
Basically, Lions recovered 4 out of 4 available fumbles, which is extremely
lucky. In addition, this is the game
when the Vikings lost Dalvin Cook early in the 2nd half to the ACL
injury. Cook proceeded to fumble on his
own 29 yard line on the play and the Lions scored the go-ahead TD 5 plays
later. Vikings consequently missed a
39-yard FG and turned it over on downs inside Detroit’s 10-yard line, unable to
put up any points in the process. It’s
hard to adjust on the fly when you top offensive weapon (Cook) gets hurt, and
the Vikes never recovered. I think we’ll
see them play a much better game in the rematch. I know playing on the road on Thursday isn’t
ideal, but Minnesota was home last week and the flight from Minneapolis to
Detroit is pretty short. In addition,
this team has been waxing opponent as of late, with an average margin of victory
of almost 13 points in the last 5.
Minnesota has faced above average opponents like LAR, WAS, and BAL
during this time. By comparison, Detroit
has barely beat Chicago last week, had an extremely difficult time with the
Browns at home the week prior, and beat a Rodgers-less Packers squad the week
before that. Here are their wins this
season: ARZ, NYG, GB (no Rodgers), CLE,
CHI, and…. MIN of course, which I’ve detailed above. Here are Detroit’s losses: ATL, CAR, NO, PIT. This team is good, but they’re simply not
good enough to hang with the top squads in the league. I expect the Vikings to show their
superiority in this rematch and to end their 3-game losing streak to the
Lions.
Good Luck