This rated a 3*** wager.

Let's start with the game itself. Why is this game being played in Utah St at noon? Well this is one of those "What If" games. "What If" we need a win, who can we screw the hardest. That's an easy answer and it's 100% Hawaii. The reason Utah State set this game up at this time is because it leaves zero advantages for Hawaii. 

Hawaii plays most games at night. Home games typically start between 7pm - 9pm. Even if the Rainbows are on the road, they generally play night games being they are in the Mountain West conference. So not only do the Rainbows have a 5.5hr flight ahead of them, they now have to play 7-9 hrs before they are use too. I can't think of many other travel spots that are this bad for any team. This week Hawaii will be on the field at a time they are usually in bed fast asleep. This is a huge advantage for Utah St and this was set up for the "What If" possibility.

You ask what is "What If" ?... Well the Aggies sit right now at 5-5 on the season and they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Utah State has to travel to Air Force next week which is a much tougher game one would think. This will be an all hands on deck and "All In" approach from the Utah State players, coaches and fans. This is also the Aggies final home game of the season. Most pro handicappers like this spot because it involves team motivation.

Speaking of motivation we have to ask ourselves if Hawaii has any. With the travel situation aside and an issue all in itself, Hawaii also fits the bill of the "Dream Crusher" scenario. Hawaii had to win last week against Fresno State to keep the season alive. They lost that game and a bowl bid for the Rainbows is now over. Hawaii's motivation will come next week if they have any at all when they close up the season at home against BYU.

Just a another quick angle is the unfamiliarity of these teams. They haven't played each other since 2014. I always like to back a motivated team with something to play for against a team that has no idea to expect.

Hawaii has 3 total wins on the season. They beat all bad teams. Western Carolina, San Jose State who is just 1-7 and UMass who is 3-7. Hawaii has also lost it's last 4 road games in a row. Utah State would have the more impressive resume right now for sure when we weigh it out.

Let's talk some stats !!

Hawaii relies on the passing offense they have. It's not going to be easy going up against the Aggies who rank #38th in passing defense. The Aggies only allowed 75yds passing last week to New Mexico. That should give them some real confidence for this week. Hawaii rushing the ball is the key for them in this game. Rainbows run the ball well, but I'm concerned how they are going to feel as this game goes on. The travel is one thing, but the elevation is another. Being 4,710ft above sea level in Maverick Stadium is going to be a challenge for a team that plays at 36ft. It's going to take a toll on the Rainbows guys. Start time, travel and elevation changes has me thinking Hawaii has no legs come middle of the 3rd quarter.

Hawaii allows 34ppg and Utah St. avg's 30ppg on offense. So We should expect Utah St on a normal day to get to 31. I just explained above how this game is anything but normal. Utah St. should exceed that point total of 31.

Hawaii has now lost 3 games in a row and they have failed to score more than 23 points in those 3 contests. Two of those games came at home for the Rainbows. Kinda makes you wonder about this one as far as a point total now doesn't it?

The Hawaii defense is rather pathetic as they rank 93rd Vs. Rush and 114th against the pass. Utah State is a well rounded out team and they rely on splitting up the pass and run on offense. They will keep Hawaii guessing all game for sure.

Another factor I like to look at is the kicking game. We have to always factor it in when you have one of the best kickers in the country. We have that in this game with Utah St. On the other hand, Hawaii has a very inexperienced and inconsistent kicking game. This is yet another advantage for the Agiies here at home.

Overall we covered basically everything that's important here. This line moved up a few ticks on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I can tell you first hand the public isn't betting this game mid week. That's sharp money and if they are seeing what I'm seeing, that move is 110% correct.

Utah St Rolls 40-16....A nice two score cushion for ourselves even with the line factored. Hawaii will be just about packed up and back on the plane at half-time. They want no part of this trip today.

Best Of Luck !!!