8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
AAC Conference
#303-304
MEMPHIS TIGERS @ HOUSTON COUGARS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
We’re fading the line move in this game. The AAC battle between Memphis and Houston opened with an OU line of 62 points. As we type our writeup on Wednesday afternoon, the line has gone DOWN to 59.5 points. We’re also fading the fact that the Houston Cougars are one of only FOUR teams in College Football (out of 130) that has gone UNDER in EVERY game this season. But not this week. We can actually thank that current 0-6 O/U record for the Cougars for the fact that this line is on the (relatively) low side… giving us some VALUE on the OVER. Let’s not forget last year’s meeting between these two teams. The OU line was 60.5 points for that game IN Memphis. Final score was 48 to 44, with both teams combining for an OVER-whelming 1182 totals yards of offense. And the game played in 2015 between these two teams also had 69 combined points (a Houston win by the score of 35 to 34). So that’s an average of 80.5 combined points in the last two meetings.
From a statistical standpoint, it’s ALL good. A couple of 400+ yard offenses taking on a coupe of 400+ yard defenses. Memphis comes in with an offense averaging 40.3 ppg (#12 in scoring)… and 490.7 yards per game (#14). On the defensive side, the Tigers basically can’t stop ANYONE. They are ranked #117 in total defense, allowing almost 500 yards per game (490.7 to be exact). Meanwhile, the host Cougars are another team that’s allowing over 400 YPG on defense. They just allowed 45 points and 416 yards in their shocking loss to Tulsa last week. And in the game before that, they allowed a whopping 544 yards to SMU. So things are actually getting worse for this defense. On the flip side, Houston DOES have the ‘offensive chops’ to make this a shootout. They are averaging 425 yards per game, including 263 via the air. With a short pointspread of only 3 points in this game, the outcome could very well go right down to the wire… in back-and-forth SHOOTOUT fashion.
WEEKDAY games in the AAC Conference have averaged 70.8 combined points per game in the last four seasons when the HOME team (HOUSTON) has been favored. Those games went OVER the Total 80% of the time.
Based on the current pointspread and OU line in this game, the projected final score is Houston 31.5 - Memphis 28.
Our database models and simulations differ pretty significantly. Those projections point to a final score of:
HOUSTON COUGARS 38
MEMPHIS TIGERS 31
That’s about 9 to 9.5 points higher than the current OU line. Any College game with a total that’s 6-9.5 points higher or lower than the current OU line triggers a 2** Play for our service.