Oklahoma has been favored by double-digits against Texas in this Red River Rivalry matchup each of the last four years. The Longhorns have covered each time, including last year losing, 45-40.
Texas is improved this season and better coached with the change from Charlie Strong to Tom Herman. The point spread is smaller to reflect that, but it's still above a touchdown. I believe that brings solid value to backing Texas.
The Longhorns have recovered from their opening week debacle against Maryland. They haven't lost against the spread since then in four games yielding less than 14 points in regulation.
Texas won at Iowa State, 17-7, two weeks ago. Oklahoma just lost, 38-31, as better than a four-touchdown home favorite against the Cyclones. That loss has to shake up the Sooners' confidence, if not cast a seed of doutbt about their invincibility.
Texas has scored at least 40 points in three of its five games. Oklahoma has a banged-up secondary and lacks linebacker depth. Iowa State scored on its final five possessions against Oklahoma. Texas sophomore Collin Johnson is one of the best wide receivers in college. He had 191 receiving yards against USC, which has a much better secondary than Oklahoma. The Sooners defense right now just can't be trusted.
The Sooners need Baker Mayfield to come up big. He's certainly capable of that. Texas, though, is second in the Big 12 in sacks and in rush defense. I don't see Oklahoma running for 282 yards on Texas like it did in last year's game.
This is always a physical, emotional game. Oklahoma is Texas' biggest rival. The Longhorns can make a huge statement with a victory here. I can easily envision a last-possession type of game so I'll take more than a touchdown.