NBA Pick #1: 711 Golden State Warriors @ 712 Cleveland Cavaliers
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Under 194 (Play up to 192)
Odds: -107 / 1.93 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker OR -106 / 1.94 on Matchbook
Detailed Write Up:
Game 5 had only 195 points scored even though every single factor helped the game to be a high scoring one. Cleveland wasn't ready for the double teaming that Golden State put on Mozgov and so, the Russian center got benched with just 9 minutes played. Because of that, the Cavs played small and with that, the game was faster than expected.
I don't expect the same to happen in here, as Cleveland lacks the depth to abdicate from playing a healthy quality player like Mozgov. With him playing more time, the pace will be slower and Cleveland will also play better defense. The Warriors took advantage of this factor to score a nice number of points, but things will be tougher for them tonight with Mozgov back on the court. This spot will be also the first time in several year where the NBA Finals are back to the 2-2-1-1-1 format, with a Cleveland -> Oakland -> Cleveland trip with just 1 day off, which obviously isn't easy for the players.
These two teams had three players each playing over 40 minutes on Game 5 and tiredness will also be a factor in here. I expect a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.