The Chargers have the Broncos next and that, of
course is a big game for them. We expect them to save their most intense
defense for Denver and try to win this one by simply outscoring the
Chiefs. Indeed, the Chargers are 9-0 OU during the regular season the
week before facing Denver, as long as they are not laying more than a TD.
The SDQL text is:
team=Chargers and no:team=Broncos and n:NB and REG
and season>=2006 and line >= -7
The average final score in these games has been
30.4 to 27.7 in favor of the Chiefs.
In addition, the Chargers are 6-0 OU at home after
a win in which Antonio Gates caught a TD pass, going over by an average of 9.9
The Chiefs also have an under-the-radar trend
involving a key player. Kansas City is 6-0 OU after any game in which
Jamaal Charles caught fewer than three passes. What is remarkable about
this one is that the Chiefs have gone over the total by an average of 24.5
ppg. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
Chiefs:Jamaal Charles:p:receptions<3 and
To complete this revealing dichotomy, we note that
the Chiefs are 0-4 OU since 2013 after any game in which Jamaal Charles caught
more than five passes.
Also, Kansas City is 6-0 OU after any game in which
Donnie Avery did not have a 20-plus yard pass reception, going over by an
average of 19.1 ppg. There have been two active dates this season.
Check out the game listing by running this SDQL text:
Chiefs:Donnie Avery:p:longest reception<20
We have solid key-player trends that are not
already factored into the line. This is a LOW number for these two
in this spot. Take the OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 Kansas City 27