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Pro Pick From
Dr. Ed Meyer

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(At current odds)

2014-10-19T23:05:00.000Z 2014-10-19T23:05:00.000Z - NFL

469 Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
470 San Diego Chargers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/19/2014

NFL Totals

OV KC/SD

23-20

45

2

L

-220

Analysis

The Chargers have the Broncos next and that, of course is a big game for them.  We expect them to save their most intense defense for Denver and try to win this one by simply outscoring the Chiefs.   Indeed, the Chargers are 9-0 OU during the regular season the week before facing Denver, as long as they are not laying more than a TD.  The SDQL text is:

team=Chargers and no:team=Broncos and n:NB and REG and season>=2006 and line >= -7

The average final score in these games has been 30.4 to 27.7 in favor of the Chiefs.

In addition, the Chargers are 6-0 OU at home after a win in which Antonio Gates caught a TD pass, going over by an average of 9.9 ppg.

The Chiefs also have an under-the-radar trend involving a key player.  Kansas City is 6-0 OU after any game in which Jamaal Charles caught fewer than three passes.  What is remarkable about this one is that the Chiefs have gone over the total by an average of 24.5 ppg.  See for yourself with this SDQL text:

Chiefs:Jamaal Charles:p:receptions<3 and season>=2013

To complete this revealing dichotomy, we note that the Chiefs are 0-4 OU since 2013 after any game in which Jamaal Charles caught more than five passes.

Also, Kansas City is 6-0 OU after any game in which Donnie Avery did not have a 20-plus yard pass reception, going over by an average of 19.1 ppg.  There have been two active dates this season.  Check out the game listing by running this SDQL text:

Chiefs:Donnie Avery:p:longest reception<20  and date>=20131201 

We have solid key-player trends that are not already factored into the line.   This is a LOW number for these two in this spot.  Take the OVER.

MTi’s FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 Kansas City 27

Pick Creation Time:
10/18/2014 2:41 PM
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