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Pro Pick From
Dr. Ed Meyer

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(At current odds)

2014-10-19T23:25:00.000Z 2014-10-19T23:25:00.000Z - NFL

473 Arizona Cardinals
vs.
474 Oakland Raiders

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/19/2014

NFL Totals

OV ARZ/OAK

24-13

44½

2

L

-220

Analysis

In their two road games this season the Raiders allowed 19 and 16 points, but in each one of their three home games they allowed 30-plus.  We like the OVER.

Oakland has suffered a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games and this indicates the OVER in this one.  First of all, the Cardinals are 7-0 OU when visiting a team that has had more turnovers than takeaways in each of their last two games, flying over by an average of 18.0 ppg.  Second, the Raiders are 6-0 OU when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games, going over by an average of 14.1 ppg.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have benefited from a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games.  This also indicates the OVER.  Oakland is 8-0 OU (+14.88 ppg) at home when their opponent has had a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games.  The SDQL here is:

team=Raiders and H and op:TOM<0 and opp:TOM<0 and date>=20091101

Last week, it looked like the Redskins were going to get the cover vs the Cardinals, as they had the ball with 30 seconds left trailing 23-20.  However, Cousins threw a pick six and the Cardinals got the 30-20 cover.  This is relevant here because Arizona is 7-0 OU (+12.21 ppg) as a favorite after scoring a defensive touchdown.

The Cardinals are second in the league in takeaways, averaging 2.20 per game and they have committed the third lowest turnovers at 0.60 per game.  Oakland is 6-0 OU when hosting a team that has turned the ball over less than 1.25 times per game season-to-date, eclipsing the total by an average of 18.75 ppg.  The SDQL text for this one is: 

team=Raiders and H and oA(TO) < 1.25 and date>=20111101

Oakland had a time of possession on 22:58 last week against the Bolts -- and the game was a close one.  Their defense should be compromised here and the Cardinals should be able to put up 30-plus.   Take the OVER.

MTi’s FORECAST: Arizona 31 OAKLAND 23

Pick Creation Time:
10/18/2014 2:40 PM
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