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Pro Pick From
Rob Crowne

Make this pick

(At current odds)

2012-10-09T03:35:00.000Z 2012-10-09T03:35:00.000Z - NFL

435 Houston Texans
vs.
436 NY Jets

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/08/2012

NFL Totals

UN HOU/NYJ

17-23

41

2

W

200

Analysis

After winning the two free underdogs in College Football here in the forum, and then losing the third dog in my pick package on Saturday, my pick packages bounced right back yesterday with Minnesota -6 in the NFL -- another easy never in doubt winner 30-7.

Tonight I'm going with the total in the Houston/Jets game.  You can get it along with a handicapping tip and a betting tip you can use with all NFL totals this season by CLICKING HERE.

HOUSTON/JETS UNDER 41

In overall yardage the Jets have only averaged 284 yds per game, and Houston has been excellent defensively allowing just 273 yards per game.  Don't expect a lot of scoring from the Jets. 

The key to NFL totals, however is the passing game. For a game to go over 40, I want to see passing yardage offensively and defensively for both teams over 200 yards.  Based on home numbers for the Jets, and road numbers for Houston, The Jets average a low 183 yards per game, and allow an even lower164 yds/game to their opponents.  Houston also defends the pass well allowing a mere 184 yds through the air.  The only number that might appear to predict an over is Houston's average of 239 oassing yards per game, but that won't be enough to overcome the excellent Jets passing defense. 

Overall numbers also point to an under with the following:

Passing Yds.

Jets Offense           197 yds
Jets Defense          197 yds
Houston Offense    234 yds
Houston Defense   183 yds

Again three out of four numbers are below 200 yds per game.

You can get the best number on the total tonight by waiting until about 30 minutes before the game.  The Monday Night is heavily bet by the squares.  The public never likes to root against scoring, and so they love the over.  The public action will push the total up as game time approaches.  The wise guys know this fact, and thus any smart money bettor that likes the under will wait to bet it until the public has pushed the total up as high as it is likely to go.  When the big guys come in and public betting starts to dry up as he game approaches the wiseguys will wind up moving the line back down. You want to catch the peak which often comes just abut 30-40 minutes before game time.

MONEY MANAGEMENT:  $99 TO WIN $90 on UNDER for a normal $100 per unit player.

Pick Creation Time:
10/08/2012 3:48 PM
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