MLB Totals Pick: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Pro Pick From
Sac Lawson

(At current odds)

2011-04-17T20:35:00.000Z 2011-04-17T20:35:00.000Z - MLB

955 Miami Marlins
vs.
956 Philadelphia Phillies

Date	Sport/Type	Pick	Score	Odds	Size	W/L	$
04/17/2011	MLB Totals	OV MIA/PHI	1:35 PM	8-105	1	L	-105

Analysis

Same play as yesterday's Rainout... Just a copy n paste.

Philly has scored 3 runs or more in 9 straight games... So while they've had some low scoring affairs, it hasn't necessarily been a result of cold bats. And Sanchez.. Well Sanchez is having control issues. And when it comes to his success, that's the biggest leading indicator we've got on him. When he's hitting spots and not walking guys, he's real good. When he's not, he's horrible. Well, he's not hitting those spots right now. And the bullpen behind him isn't one I'm looking to stand behind on the road either. Regardless of how talented they've looked this year.

On the other side. Hamels is notorious for being a slow starter. He simply hasn't had many good April's in his career. On top of that... he's just 2-5 in his last 11 starts against Florida.

I'm not big on backing Hamels early in the year, and I'm not sold on Sanchez right now in terms of his control. Yes, we're fading the top two bullpens in major league baseball (in terms of ERA). And that's scary. But let's be real here. At the end of the season these two bullpens will be middle of the pack, at best.. Meaning we're getting value going against what they've done over the last two weeks. 8 is a great number for where these starters are at in their season progression.. And 8 is a great number to get these two above-par offenses against overrated bullpens. 1.5 units on the over.

Pick Creation Time:

04/17/2011 6:12 AM

Comment Stream

Pro Pick From Sac Lawson

2011-04-17T20:35:00.000Z 2011-04-17T20:35:00.000Z - MLB

955 Miami Marlins vs. 956 Philadelphia Phillies

Analysis

Pick Creation Time:

Pro Pick From
Sac Lawson

955 Miami Marlins
vs.
956 Philadelphia Phillies