Coach Fletcher’s NFL
1* Pick
Sunday, October 11
10 am Buffalo at Tennessee
The Pick 1* Buffalo
-1.5 Westgate
The 2-2 Buffalo Bills travel to Tennessee to take on the
Titans, who are 1-2.
The Bills opened their season with a bang! In a pick’em game, the Bills beat the Colts
27-14. Of course, the Colt starter there
was Andrew Luck. They ran for 147 yards
in 36 carries and tossed just 19 passes but got 195 yards. The Bills had no turnovers but grabbed 3 from
the Colts. The Colts rushed for only 64
yards and passed 26-49 for 240 yards. At
that time, no one predicted the struggle that was ahead for the Colts so the
win may have been overemphasized.
Next up was a game with the mighty Patriots and the Bills
couldn’t keep up offensively and lost 40-32.
That game may actually look better now considering the Patriots are undefeated. The Bills were actually favored by 1 in that
game. The Bills ran the ball well, 27
carries for 160 yards. But they had 3
turnovers to the Pats two and Brady sliced up the Bill secondary for 451
yards.
The Bills got back on the winning track in game 3, a game
they should have and did win. The Dolphins
were at home in this pick’em contest that the Bills won easily, 41-14. They ran well again, 34-151, and passed 21-29
for 277. The Dolphins took advantage of
the Buffalo secondary passing for 289 yards and ran for 102 yards on 20
carries, but 3 turnovers and an inability to find the end zone gave the Bills
all they needed.
As 6.5 favorites in game 4, the Bills lost to the Giants
24-10 in a very disappointing effort.
The Giants shut down the Bills running game, who were without LeSean
McCoy and while the Bills passed for 258 they couldn’t catch New York. Both teams had 303 total yards.
The Titans are another story. In a season where they could and perhaps
should be at 3-0, they are instead 1-2.
They opened the season trouncing Tampa Bay 42-14. They earned just 309 yards in total offense
but held the Bucs to just 92 yards rushing and 181 in the air.
In game 2 the Titans handed the Cleveland Browns their only
win of the year, losing 28-14.The Titans outgained the Browns 385 to 274 but 3
turnovers spelled doom for the Tennessee boys.
In their first home game the Titans exploded for 33 points
but it wasn’t enough to beat the Colts who tallied 35. The Titan passing game stepped up and threw
for 345 yards. Once again they outgained
their rivals, 433-378, but the defense wasn’t stout enough and the Titans fell
again.
Buffalo has definitely played the more difficult schedule
and that is no doubt why they are a road favorite here. Both teams run the ball about the same, but
the Titan passing game has gotten better each week. The Titans have a seemingly better defensive
secondary, but if you throw out the 451 yards from Brady and company, this is a
pretty even match-up.
Buffalo’s defense may be a little more opportunistic since
they have grabbed 9 turnovers in 4 games.
The Bill offense has turned it over 5 times. Tennessee is on the wrong side of the
turnover ledger having lost it 6 times and retrieved just 4 from their foes.
While LeSean McCoy is out for the Bills, it shouldn’t hurt
the offense and in fact might help.. McCoy’s replacement, Karlos Williams, is
averaging 5.4 yards per carry while McCoy averaged just 3.4. Bishop Stankey and Dexter McCluster make a one-two
punch for the Titans that has been effective.
The Titans have an edge in every offensive category, but playing the
Bucs and the Browns didn’t hurt and the edges are small.
In an odd situation, the Bills hired Rex Ryan, a defensive
guru, to solidify the Bill defense. And
that hasn’t happened yet, but things seem to be getting better. The Bills are good at stopping the run but
teams have had too much success in the air.
The defense ranks 22nd overall and are giving up 64 more
yards per game than they did last year.
They have gotten just 7 sacks in 4 games after leading the league with
54 last year.
I expect the Buffalo defense, especially the pass rush, will
finally break out of it this weekend.
Marcus Mariota has been sacked 12 times already this year, 2nd
most in the league. The fact that they
can get him should be a factor that may spur the defense as a whole. And with his long history, it seems like it
is just a matter of time before the Bill defense responds. This is an ideal situation for that to
happen.
Part of the Bill problem is a lack of discipline. They were penalized for 135 in last week’s
loss to the Giants and have a league high of 47 penalties for 428 yards. That is another area that should be resolved
sooner rather than later.
QB Tyrod Taylor has completed 71.7% of his passes for 988
yards, 8 TDs and 4 picks. Mariota is
hitting 63.5% for 833 yards, 8 TDs and 2 picks.
A sizeable amount of the Bills’ offense is questionable for
this game. As of Friday, WR Sammy
Watkins and RB Karlos Williams were both listed as questionable. Watkins has a calf injury and Williams
suffered a concussion. If neither of
these two play, it may be best to sit this one out. It’s likely that Williams will probably sit
this one out, but Watkins would be a key addition.
As long as Watkins and/or Williams play, I like the
Bills. If both sit out I will still play
the Bills but will cut down the size of my wager. That’s why I put this one out as a 1*. We just can’t be sure about Williams and
Watkins. I think the key to the game
will be Tyrod Taylor. When Taylor has
not been intercepted or sacked, the Bills have won. In the two Bill losses (I can excuse the loss
to the Pats), he hasn’t performed as well.
Watkins practiced Friday so I believe he goes. It looks like Williams will join McCoy on the
sideline. Since Watkins has participated
in positional drills for the second straight practice, he should definitely go
in this one.
I like the Bills in this one. They simply have too much talent to play
without discipline the way they have done this season. Penalites and missed assignments are
fixable. Talent isn’t. Ryan’s defense has under-performed, but it’s
only a matter of time before we see the defense come around. Mariota is the perfect target for that
turnaround. I also look for something
from Percy Harvin who has been quiet this season. Dan Herron was picked up to fill a spot on
running back and kicker Billy Cundiff was signed. I look for a good game from the Bills and a
victory.
The Pick 1* Bills
-1.5 Westgate